Growth in Emerging Market Economies and the Commodity Boom of 2003–2008: Evidence from Growth Forecast Revisions Staff Working Paper 2012-8 Elif Arbatli, Garima Vasishtha Demand for industrial raw materials from emerging economies, particularly emerging Asia, is widely believed to have fueled the surge in oil and industrial commodity prices during 2002-2008. The paper first presents a simple storage model in which commodity prices respond to market participant’s changing expectations of the future macroeconomic environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity Staff Working Paper 2001-2 Richard Luger This paper proposes a class of linear signed rank statistics to test for a random walk with unknown drift in the presence of arbitrary forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22
The Digital Economy—Insight from a Special Survey with IT Service Exporters Staff Discussion Paper 2016-21 Wei Dong, James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek Information technology (IT) is an increasingly integral part of everyday business and personal life reflecting the ongoing and accelerating digital transformation of the economy. In this paper, we present information gathered from a survey with export-oriented firms in the Canadian IT service industry and consultations with industry associations aimed at shedding light on this small but highly dynamic sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff Working Paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52
February 15, 2018 Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
November 23, 2011 Renewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework Remarks Mark Carney Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Governor Mark Carney discusses the key elements of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 15, 2014 Double Coincidence of Needs: Pension Funds and Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Pension Investment Association of Canada Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses pension funds and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee Staff Working Paper 2022-15 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov We construct and estimate a structural two-stage model of equilibrium in a market for payments in order to quantify the network externalities and identify the main determinants of consumer and merchant decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14
Adverse Selection, Liquidity, and Market Breakdown Staff Working Paper 2010-32 Koralai Kirabaeva This paper studies the interaction between adverse selection, liquidity risk and beliefs about systemic risk in determining market liquidity, asset prices and welfare. Even a small amount of adverse selection in the asset market can lead to fire-sale pricing and possibly to a market breakdown if it is accompanied by a flight-to-liquidity, a misassessment of systemic risk, or uncertainty about asset values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G0, G01, G1, G11
Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing Staff Discussion Paper 2010-4 Kimberly Beaton, Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, F, F0, F01, F3, F32