Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures Staff Working Paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14
December 10, 2005 A History of the Canadian Dollar - by James Powell The history of Canada's money provides a unique perspective from which to view the growth and development of the Canadian economy and Canada as a nation. Author James Powell traces the evolution of Canadian money form its pre-colonial origins to the present day, highlighting the currency chaos of the colonial period, as well as the effects of two world wars and the Great Depression. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs, Souvenir books
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration and Variance Estimation Technical Report No. 114 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Christopher Henry This technical report describes sampling, weighting and variance estimation for the Bank of Canada’s 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Under quota sampling, a raking ratio method is implemented to generate weights with both post-stratification and nonparametric nonresponse weight adjustments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83
Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Using a Panel of Canadian Firms Staff Working Paper 2007-44 Francisco Covas, Wouter den Haan We document the cyclical behavior of debt, equity, and retained earnings for different firm categories using firm-level Canadian data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, G, G3, G32
December 13, 2010 Living with Low for Long Remarks Mark Carney Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Current turbulence in Europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. In a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff Working Paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Service sector JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81
Efficiency and Bargaining Power in the Interbank Loan Market Staff Working Paper 2012-29 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Federico Echenique, Matthew Shum Using detailed loan transactions-level data we examine the efficiency of an overnight interbank lending market, and the bargaining power of its participants. Our analysis relies on the equilibrium concept of the core, which imposes a set of no-arbitrage conditions on trades in the market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C7, C71, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14 Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58