Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods Staff Working Paper 2003-7 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, E37
Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021 Staff Discussion Paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
December 14, 2009 Financial System Review - December 2009 Conditions in the international financial system have improved considerably since June in response to the forceful actions taken by policy-makers around the world.FSR Highlights - December 2009 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices Staff Working Paper 2013-15 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64
June 20, 2010 Financial System Review - June 2010 Risks to the stability of both the Canadian and the global financial systems appeared to be diminishing for most of the period since the last Financial System Review (FSR), as the recovery in financial conditions and the macroeconomic environment continued to solidify.FSR Highlights - June 2010 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Cashless Bank Branches in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-29 Walter Engert, Ben Fung Cashless or tellerless bank branches have proliferated in several countries in recent years. In a cashless bank branch, teller or counter services such as cash withdrawals, deposits and cheque-cashing are not available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51
May 13, 2014 Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Realized and Implied Volatility Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Bo Young Chang, Bruno Feunou Uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s future policy rates is measured using implied volatility computed from interest rate options and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following major policy actions taken by the Bank in response to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Findings also indicate that, on average, uncertainty decreases following the Bank’s policy rate announcements. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Considerations for the allocation of non-default losses by financial market infrastructures Staff Analytical Note 2022-16 Daniele Costanzo, Radoslav Raykov Non-default losses of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) have gained attention due to their potential impacts on FMIs and FMI participants, and the lack of a common approach to address them. A key question is, who should absorb these losses? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28, G3, G32, G33
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, H, H5