Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data Staff Working Paper 2021-22 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Julien McDonald-Guimond Are summers getting hotter? Do daily temperatures change more than they used to? Using daily Canadian temperature data from 1960 to 2020 and modern econometric methods, we provide economists and policy-makers evidence on the important climate change issue of evolving temperatures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, Q, Q5, Q54
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, H, H5
Survey of Price-Setting Behaviour of Canadian Companies Staff Working Paper 2006-35 David Amirault, Carolyn Kwan, Gordon Wilkinson In many mainstream macroeconomic models, sticky prices play an important role in explaining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11
Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004 Staff Working Paper 2015-22 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Chunling Fu We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): H, H2, H26, I, I3, I32, K, K4, K42
A Stochastic Volatility Model with Conditional Skewness Staff Working Paper 2011-20 Bruno Feunou, Roméo Tedongap We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1, G12
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31
Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods Staff Working Paper 2003-7 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, E37
Examining recent revisions to CPI-common Staff Analytical Note 2022-15 Elyse Sullivan Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C18, E, E3, E31
October 17, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Corporate Governance, Product Market Competition and Debt Financing Staff Working Paper 2014-5 Teodora Paligorova, Jun Yang This paper examines the impact of product market competition and corporate governance on the cost of debt financing and the use of bond covenants. We find that more anti-takeover provisions are associated with a lower cost of debt only in competitive industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G3, G34