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Calculating Effective Degrees of Freedom for Forecast Combinations and Ensemble Models Staff discussion paper 2022-19 James Younker This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. Computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C02, C1, C13, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic Staff analytical note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
March 30, 1995 Uncertainty and the Transmission of Monetary Policy in Canada Lecture Gordon Thiessen York University, Glendon College Toronto, Ontario Just over seven years ago, my predecessor, John Crow, delivered the Hanson Memorial Lecture at the University of Alberta. In it, he discussed a number of issues relating to the conduct of Canadian monetary policy, including the goal of monetary policy, the transmission mechanism, the use of monetary aggregates as policy guides, financial market uncertainty, and the role of the exchange rate Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures
November 14, 2013 Fragmentation in Canadian Equity Markets Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Corey Garriott, Anna Pomeranets, Joshua Slive, Thomas Thorn Changes in technology and regulation have resulted in an increasing number of trading venues in equity markets in Canada. New trading platforms have intensified price competition and have encouraged innovation, and they do not appear to have segmented trade. But the increasingly complex market structure has necessitated investments in expensive technology and has introduced new operational risks. Regulatory responses should be carefully adapted to retain the competition and innovation associated with this market fragmentation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G2, L, L1, L13, N, N2, N22
June 16, 2021 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Tiff Macklem Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
June 30, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023 Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
September 26, 2000 Bank of Canada to issue new bank notes Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada will issue a new series of bank notes beginning in January 2001 to further enhance the security of Canada's currency. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
May 18, 2005 Bank of Canada Issues Upgraded $10 Bank Note Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada today put into circulation an upgraded $10 bank note with enhanced security features. The design, colour, and theme (Remembrance and Peacekeeping) of the upgraded $10 note are the same as those of the previously issued $10 note from the Canadian Journey series. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2022-23 Christopher Henry, Matthew Shimoda, Julia Zhu We present results from the 2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares. We highlight long-term trends and provide additional context for results with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments