Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment Staff analytical note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
June 26, 2024 CFIF-BATVN publishes an educational primer on Canadian Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Canadian money markets are undergoing a significant change due to the disappearance of Bankers Acceptances (BAs). BAs will no longer be issued by the major Canadian banks after the cessation of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate’s (CDOR) publication on June 28, 2024. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
January 23, 2002 Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2002 In the November Monetary Policy Report, the timing and extent of the recovery in economic activity in Canada this year was seen as depending crucially on geopolitical developments and on how quickly consumer and business confidence would return to normal. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
September 9, 2021 Economic progress report: Monetary policy for the recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Montréal, Quebec Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how the Bank could adjust monetary policy and its quantitative easing program as the recovery progresses. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Bank notes, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 20, 2020 Financial System Survey highlights—November 2020 This article presents the key results from the autumn 2020 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted from September 8 to September 25, 2020. The survey included a special section on the impact of and the responses to COVID-19. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Survey
December 16, 2021 CARR publishes White Paper on the recommended future of CDOR In October 2020, the Canadian Alternative Reference Rate (CARR) working group was tasked with analyzing the current status of the Canadian Dollar Offered Rate (CDOR) and to make recommendations based on that analysis. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
October 7, 2021 The long and short of it: A balanced vision for the international monetary and financial system Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Council on Foreign Relations Washington, D.C. Governor Tiff Macklem advocates for global coordination to strengthen the international monetary and financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Calculating Effective Degrees of Freedom for Forecast Combinations and Ensemble Models Staff discussion paper 2022-19 James Younker This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. Computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C02, C1, C13, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 16, 2021 Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Tiff Macklem Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 20, 1995 Monetary Policy Report – November 1995 This is the second in a series of semi-annual reports designed to increase the transparency and understanding of Canadian monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report