Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding Staff Working Paper 2010-39 H. Evren Damar, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima Some evidence points to the procyclicality of leverage among financial institutions leading to aggregate volatility. This procyclicality occurs when financial institutions finance their assets with non-equity funding (i.e., debt financed asset expansions). Wholesale funding is an important source of market-based funding that allows some institutions to quickly adjust their leverage. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
October 17, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2005-22 Tarek Harchaoui, Faouzi Tarkhani, Terence Yuen Using industry-level data for 22 Canadian manufacturing industries, the authors examine the relationship between exchange rates and investment during the period 1981–97. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4
Contagion in Dealer Networks Staff Working Paper 2020-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton Dealers connect investors who want to buy or sell securities in financial markets. Over time, dealers and investors form trading networks to save time and resources. An emerging field of research investigates how networks form. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1, L14
International Financial Crises and Flexible Exchange Rates: Some Policy Lessons from Canada Technical Report No. 88 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Zahir Antia This paper examines the behaviour of the Canadian dollar from 1997 to 1999 to see if there is any evidence of excess volatility or significant overshooting. A small econometric model of the exchange rate, based on market fundamentals, is presented and used to make tentative judgments about the extent to which the currency might have been systematically over- or undervalued. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Meets the Zero Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2017-16 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi We add downward nominal wage rigidity to a standard New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages, where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is allowed to bind. We find that wage rigidity not only reduces the frequency of zero bound episodes but also mitigates the severity of corresponding recessions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52
Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy Staff Working Paper 2012-41 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions and they do not distinguish between dates with and without scheduled announcements. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13
A Financial Stability Analysis of Zombie Firms in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-3 Timothy Grieder, Juan Ortega We measure the prevalence of zombie firms in Canada and assess how they could potentially affect the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32
June 13, 2013 Financial System Review - June 2013 The Governing Council judges that the risks to the Canadian financial system have decreased somewhat relative to the December FSR, but that the overall level of risk remains high. The key risks are similar to those highlighted in December, and emanate primarily from the external environment. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report