Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004 Staff Working Paper 2015-22 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Chunling Fu We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): H, H2, H26, I, I3, I32, K, K4, K42
Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-17 Jason Allen, Ali Hortaçsu, Jakub Kastl This paper explores the reliability of using prices of credit default swap contracts (CDS) as indicators of default probabilities during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Gender Gaps in Time Use and Entrepreneurship Staff Working Paper 2024-43 Pedro Bento, Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail The prevalence of entrepreneurs, particularly low-productivity non-employers, declines as economies develop. This decline is more pronounced for women. Relative to men, women are more likely to be entrepreneurs in poor economies but less likely in rich economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, L, L2, O, O1
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31
Strengthening IMF Surveillance: An Assessment of Recent Reforms Staff Discussion Paper 2009-10 Robert Lavigne, Lawrence L. Schembri The authors assess the potential impact of recently approved reforms to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance; namely, the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies" and the "Statement of Surveillance Priorities" (SSP). They conclude that these complementary reforms have the potential to create a comprehensive and coherent framework for IMF surveillance. If implemented properly, […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
Testing the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Using Exact Methods Staff Working Paper 2003-7 Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify using asymptotically valid structural-change tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C5, C52, E, E3, E31, E37
Considerations for the allocation of non-default losses by financial market infrastructures Staff Analytical Note 2022-16 Daniele Costanzo, Radoslav Raykov Non-default losses of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) have gained attention due to their potential impacts on FMIs and FMI participants, and the lack of a common approach to address them. A key question is, who should absorb these losses? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28, G3, G32, G33
October 5, 2005 The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Christopher Ragan An essential element of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting framework is a floating exchange rate that is free to adjust in response to shocks that affect the Canadian and world economies. This floating rate plays an important role in the transmission mechanism for monetary policy. A practical question is how the Bank of Canada incorporates currency movements into the monetary policy decision-making process. Only after determining the cause and persistence of exchange rate change, and its likely net effect on aggregate demand, can the Bank decide on the appropriate policy response to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. Ragan reviews the need to target inflation and the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, including the role of the exchange rate, before describing two types of exchange rate movements and their implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation
News-Driven International Credit Cycles Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21