Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation? Staff Working Paper 1996-9 Allan Crawford, Marcel Kasumovich The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
The Effects of the Exchange Rate on Investment: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2005-22 Tarek Harchaoui, Faouzi Tarkhani, Terence Yuen Using industry-level data for 22 Canadian manufacturing industries, the authors examine the relationship between exchange rates and investment during the period 1981–97. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4
Contagion in Dealer Networks Staff Working Paper 2020-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton Dealers connect investors who want to buy or sell securities in financial markets. Over time, dealers and investors form trading networks to save time and resources. An emerging field of research investigates how networks form. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1, L14
April 2, 2012 Exporting in a Post-Crisis World Remarks Mark Carney Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chamber of Commerce Waterloo, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses why Canada’s exports are lagging and what can be done to respond to the underlying challenges. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Financial Shocks and the Output Growth Distribution Staff Working Paper 2025-25 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper studies how financial shocks shape the distribution of output growth by introducing a quantile-augmented vector autoregression (QAVAR), which integrates quantile regressions into a structural VAR framework. The QAVAR preserves standard shock identification while delivering flexible, nonparametric forecasts of conditional moments and tail risk measures for gross domestic product. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Meets the Zero Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2017-16 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi We add downward nominal wage rigidity to a standard New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages, where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is allowed to bind. We find that wage rigidity not only reduces the frequency of zero bound episodes but also mitigates the severity of corresponding recessions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52
Markets Look Beyond the Headline Staff Analytical Note 2018-37 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G14
March 30, 2006 The Evolving International Monetary Order and the Need for an Evolving IMF Lecture David Dodge Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton, New Jersey The world needs an international institution to promote a new monetary order—a well-functioning, market-based global financial system. This will be the subject of my remarks today. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures
June 13, 2013 Financial System Review - June 2013 The Governing Council judges that the risks to the Canadian financial system have decreased somewhat relative to the December FSR, but that the overall level of risk remains high. The key risks are similar to those highlighted in December, and emanate primarily from the external environment. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report