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3046 Results

Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM)

Technical Report No. 123 Kerem Tuzcuoglu
The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios.

News-Driven International Credit Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting with Financial Market Imperfections

Staff Working Paper 2008-26 Francisco Covas, Yahong Zhang
This paper compares price-level-path targeting (PT) with inflation targeting (IT) in a sticky-price, dynamic, general equilibrium model augmented with imperfections in both the debt and equity markets.

Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov
How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).

Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models

Staff Working Paper 2023-59 Tao Wang
Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.
December 23, 2006

Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates

Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates.
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