Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation? Staff Working Paper 1996-9 Allan Crawford, Marcel Kasumovich The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
December 10, 2013 Financial System Review - December 2013 There have been positive developments in the global financial system since the June Financial System Review, in part reflecting some encouraging signs about the global economy. At the same time, significant vulnerabilities remain. The Governing Council judges that the overall risk to the stability of Canada’s financial system has decreased from “high” to “elevated” over the past six months. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Labor Market Participation, Unemployment and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2014-9 Alessia Campolmi, Stefano Gnocchi We incorporate a participation decision in a standard New Keynesian model with matching frictions and show that treating the labor force as constant leads to incorrect evaluation of alternative policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, E5, E52
January 10, 2011 Household Finances and Economic Growth Remarks Agathe Côté Canadian Club of Kingston Kingston, Ontario Why does household financial health matter to the Bank of Canada? It matters because how Canadians spend and how much they spend affect both the conduct of monetary policy and the stability of the financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43
A Financial Stability Analysis of Zombie Firms in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-3 Timothy Grieder, Juan Ortega We measure the prevalence of zombie firms in Canada and assess how they could potentially affect the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32
Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding Staff Working Paper 2010-39 H. Evren Damar, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima Some evidence points to the procyclicality of leverage among financial institutions leading to aggregate volatility. This procyclicality occurs when financial institutions finance their assets with non-equity funding (i.e., debt financed asset expansions). Wholesale funding is an important source of market-based funding that allows some institutions to quickly adjust their leverage. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27
December 11, 2012 Guidance Remarks Mark Carney CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney speaks about central bank policy guidance. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks