May 11, 1996 Recent developments in monetary aggregates and their implications Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1996 Louis-Robert Lafleur, Walter Engert In 1995, the broad aggregate M2+ grew at an annual rate of 4.5 per cent—almost twice the rate recorded in 1994—as competition from mutual funds drew less money from personal savings deposits. An adjusted M2+ aggregate, which internalizes the effect of close substitutes such as CSBs and certain mutual funds, grew by only 3.4 per cent. Gross M1 grew by 8.2 per cent during the year, reflecting an increased demand for transactions balances as market interest rates declined and as banks offered more attractive rates of interest on corporate current account balances. The robust growth of gross M1 in the second half of 1995 suggests a moderate expansion of economic activity in the first half of 1996, while moderate growth in the broad aggregates indicates a rate of monetary expansion consistent with continued low inflation. In this annual review of the monetary aggregates, the authors also introduce a new model, based on calculated deviations of M1 from its long-run demand, which suggests that inflation should remain just below the midpoint of the inflation-control target range over the next couple of years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Recent economic and financial developments
Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, F, F3, F31, F4, F47
Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models Staff Working Paper 2023-59 Tao Wang Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E7, E71, G, G5, G51
Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM Staff Working Paper 1997-16 Richard Black, David Rose This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17
December 23, 2006 Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics
On the Essentiality of E-Money Staff Working Paper 2015-43 Jonathan Chiu, Tsz-Nga Wong Recent years have witnessed the advances of e-money systems such as Bitcoin, PayPal and various forms of stored-value cards. This paper adopts a mechanism design approach to identify some essential features of different payment systems that implement and improve the constrained optimal resource allocation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, L, L5, L51
March 13, 2008 Addressing Financial Market Turbulence Remarks Mark Carney Toronto Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario Since last summer, many of us here today have been preoccupied with the ongoing dislocations in financial markets. What began in securities linked to U.S. subprime mortgages has spread to a broad range of structured assets, conventional credit markets, and, to a lesser extent, equities. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Retail Order Flow Segmentation Staff Working Paper 2016-20 Corey Garriott, Adrian Walton In August 2012, the New York Stock Exchange launched the Retail Liquidity Program (RLP), a trading facility that enables participating organizations to quote dark limit orders executable only by retail traders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
June 11, 2009 Collateral Management in the LVTS by Canadian Financial Institutions Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 Chris D'Souza This article examines the incentives for banks to hold various assets on their balance sheets for use as collateral when the opportunity cost of doing so can be high. Focusing on the five-year period (2002-07) that preceded the financial crisis, it examines the choices made by financial institutions among the assets that are pledged as collateral in Canada's Large Value Transfer System. This serves as a baseline for collateral-management practices during relatively normal times. The results of this study are important for policy-makers, especially the Bank of Canada, which is concerned both about the efficient functioning of fixed-income markets and about the credit risk it ultimately bears in insuring LVTS settlement. The results suggest that relative market liquidity and market-making capacity are important factors in the choice of securities pledged as collateral in the LVTS. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems
The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2014-48 Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, E27, E3, E32