April 16, 2014 Monetary Policy Report – April 2014 Economic growth in Canada is expected to average about 2 1/2 per cent in 2014 and 2015 before easing to around the 2 per cent growth rate of the economy’s potential in 2016. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Demand-Driven Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets Staff Working Paper 2025-29 Ingomar Krohn, Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Estimating the Slope of the Demand Function at Auctions for Government of Canada Bonds Staff Discussion Paper 2023-12 Bo Young Chang We use bid data from Government of Canada bond auctions between 1999 and 2021 to gauge the yield sensitivity of these bonds to the issuance amount. Our new metric estimates the demand function of the bidders at each auction and offers insights into the relationship between supply and yield of government bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Interest rates JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12
March 18, 2008 Canada's Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s: Valuable Lessons Learned Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Lawrence L. Schembri Schembri studies Canada's post-World War II experience in introducing a floating exchange rate, including its effects on the Canadian economy and its influence on the development of macroeconomic theory. In particular, Canada's flexible exchange rate and high degree of capital mobility with the United States provided an unprecedented experiment for macroeconomic policy. The successes and difficulties encountered by Canadian authorities in managing monetary and fiscal policy under this regime drew the interest of researchers at the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere and had a significant impact on the development of the Mundell-Fleming model, the path-breaking innovation in modern open-economy macroeconomics. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy framework
Price Selection Staff Working Paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51
Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock Staff Working Paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14
A Micro Approach to the Issue of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from the 19881990 Labour Market Activity Survey Staff Working Paper 1997-12 Gordon Wilkinson This paper uses a rich set of microeconomic labour market data—the 198890 Labour Market Activity Survey published by Statistics Canada—to test whether there is negative duration dependence in unemployment spells. It updates and extends similar work carried out by Jones (1995) who used the 198687 Labour Market Activity Survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24
December 10, 2013 Financial System Review - December 2013 There have been positive developments in the global financial system since the June Financial System Review, in part reflecting some encouraging signs about the global economy. At the same time, significant vulnerabilities remain. The Governing Council judges that the overall risk to the stability of Canada’s financial system has decreased from “high” to “elevated” over the past six months. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58