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2095 Results

Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market

Staff analytical note 2022-18 Alexander Lam
Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted.

What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

Staff discussion paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model

Technical report No. 122 Gabriel Bruneau, Thibaut Duprey, Ruben Hipp
We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress.
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