How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43
Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2024-23 Hongyu Xiao This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, F, F2, F22
Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913 Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71
August 25, 2015 The Long-Term Evolution of House Prices: An International Perspective Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the international evidence of underlying determinants of long-term movements in house prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, International topics, Sectoral balance sheet
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff Working Paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48
August 13, 1999 Recent Initiatives in the Canadian Market for Government of Canada Securities Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1999 Nancy Harvey The initiatives reviewed by the author were undertaken to ensure a liquid and well-functioning market for Government of Canada securities in light of the significant shift in the government's financial position. They include changes made in 1998 by the Bank of Canada and the government to the rules governing auctions and to the Bank's surveillance of the auction process, changes to the treasury bill and bond programs, and implementation of a pilot buyback program for Government of Canada marketable bonds. In addition, the Investment Dealers Association of Canada adopted a code of conduct for the secondary market. These initiatives were well received by the market and appear to have had a positive impact. The Bank and the government are, however, continuing their search for ways to maintain and enhance the efficiency of this market. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20
Short-Run and Long-Run Causality between Monetary Policy Variables and Stock Prices Staff Working Paper 2006-39 Jean-Marie Dufour, David Tessier The authors examine simultaneously the causal links connecting monetary policy variables, real activity, and stock returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C32, C5, C51, C53, E, E5, E52
March 29, 2010 Beyond Recovery: Sustaining Economic Growth Remarks Paul Jenkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario John Maynard Keynes said the objective of "analysis is … to provide ourselves with an organized and orderly method of thinking out particular problems .… This is the nature of economic thinking." Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14