May 13, 2014 The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation Staff Working Paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, R, R2, R22
December 21, 2008 A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy Financial System Review - December 2008 Hajime Tomura Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia Staff Working Paper 2005-38 Marc-André Gosselin, Nicolas Parent Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Stability and Efficiency in Decentralized Two‐Sided Markets with Weak Preferences Staff Working Paper 2017-4 Radoslav Raykov Many decentralized markets are able to attain a stable outcome despite the absence of a central authority (Roth and Vande Vate, 1990). A stable matching, however, need not be efficient if preferences are weak. This raises the question whether a decentralized market with weak preferences can attain Pareto efficiency in the absence of a central matchmaker. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, D, D6, D61
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4
June 23, 2003 Financial System Review - June 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025 Staff Analytical Note 2025-15 Samuel Boulanger, Raheeb Dastagir, Daniel de Munnik, Eshini Ekanayake, Kun Mo, Walter Muiruri, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Louis Poirier This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4
Reputational Risk Management in Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2015-16 Jill Vardy This paper discusses reputational risk in the context of central banking and explains why it matters to central banks. It begins with a general discussion of reputational risk within the broader framework of risk management. Content Type(s): Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, International topics, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities Staff Working Paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41