The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model Staff Working Paper 2015-35 Julien Champagne This paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J33, J4, J41
November 13, 2000 Seminar Summary: Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2000 Allan Crawford On 8 and 9 June 2000, the Bank held a seminar to examine some key issues affecting the upcoming decision on Canada's inflation-control target for the period after 2001. The main issues covered at the seminar were the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity and its implications for employment as well as the relative merits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting. Another critical question that was discussed was how to balance the evidence on all the relevant issues in order to develop an overall view on the appropriate long-run target. The author gives a brief overview of the seminar followed by detailed summaries of individual papers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation targets
A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases Staff Working Paper 2014-38 Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify the following: (1) regimes where economies synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases; and (2) regimes where economies are unsynchronized, essentially following independent business cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C4, C45, E, E3, E32
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17
Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2024-23 Hongyu Xiao This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, F, F2, F22
November 11, 2008 Merchants' Costs of Accepting Means of Payment: Is Cash the Least Costly? Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor In a competitive sales environment, merchants are compelled to offer consumers the option of paying for goods and services using a variety of payment methods, including cash, debit card, or credit card. Each method entails different costs and benefits to merchants. To better understand the costs of accepting retail payments, the Bank of Canada surveyed over 500 Canadian merchants and found that most consider cash the least costly. This article investigated this perception by calculating the variable costs per transaction of accepting different means of payment. The findings are that costs for each payment method vary by merchant and transaction value, with debit cards the least costly payment for a broad cross-section of merchants. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Bank notes
An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia Staff Working Paper 2005-38 Marc-André Gosselin, Nicolas Parent Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements Staff Analytical Note 2025-27 Josef Schroth Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK Staff Working Paper 2021-55 Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, Keshav Dogra We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63
June 22, 2005 Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Jason Andreou In the interest of better understanding the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy actions on bond and bill yields, Andreou assesses the impact of policy-rate announcements on short and long bonds over the period 1996 to 2004. To aid the analysis, policy actions are decomposed into expected and surprise components. He also examines whether the introduction of fixed announcement dates (FADs) has affected these results, including markets' perceptions. The main finding is that unexpected policy actions by the Bank have a significant effect on market rates at the shorter end of the yield curve, with the effect dissipating as the maturity increases. A second finding, that the impact on longer-term interest rates of a surprise action by the Bank has diminished since the introduction of the FADs, suggests that the Bank's long-term policy goals are well understood and credible. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty