Stability and Efficiency in Decentralized Two‐Sided Markets with Weak Preferences Staff Working Paper 2017-4 Radoslav Raykov Many decentralized markets are able to attain a stable outcome despite the absence of a central authority (Roth and Vande Vate, 1990). A stable matching, however, need not be efficient if preferences are weak. This raises the question whether a decentralized market with weak preferences can attain Pareto efficiency in the absence of a central matchmaker. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, D, D6, D61
Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment Staff Working Paper 2025-26 Chao Gu, Janet Hua Jiang, Liang Wang We identify two channels that affect the relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages because unemployed suffer more from inflation than employed, generating a positive relationship. Second, inflation increases firms’ financing costs, generating a negative relationship. Improvements in firm financing conditions can induce the relationship to switch signs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E51
Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data Staff Working Paper 2023-4 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba Does consumption smoothing fundamentally decrease during macroeconomic disasters? This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, E, E2, E21
August 22, 2003 Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2003 Grahame Johnson Financial market expectations regarding future changes in the target for the overnight rate of interest are an important source of information for the Bank of Canada. Financial markets are the mechanism through which the policy rate affects other financial variables, such as longer-term interest rates, the exchange rate, and other asset prices. An accurate measure of their expectations can therefore help policy-makers assess the potential impact of contemplated changes. Johnson focuses on the expectations hypothesis, which measures expectations of future levels of the target overnight rate as implied by current money market yields. Although expectations can be derived from the current yield on any short-term fixed-income asset, some assets have proven to be more accurate predictors than others. The implementation of a policy of fixed-announcements dates has coincided with the increased predictive power of these short-term assets. As a result of this improvement, a relatively simple model of the yield curve can now provide an accurate measure of financial market expectations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Interest rates
CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses Staff Working Paper 2024-52 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52
Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12
December 10, 2013 Margining for Non-Centrally Cleared Over-the-Counter Derivatives Financial System Review - December 2013 Nikil Chande, Stéphane Lavoie, Thomas Thorn Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2024-23 Hongyu Xiao This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, F, F2, F22
Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry: A Comparison of Europe and the United States Staff Working Paper 1994-1 Nick Chamie, Alain DeSerres, René Lalonde Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47