Pulse check: Measuring underlying inflation and its drivers Staff Analytical Note 2025-29 Luis Uzeda This note presents PULSE, a new measure of underlying inflation in Canada based on a dynamic factor model estimated on disaggregated inflation data. PULSE captures the persistent component of inflation and decomposes it into broad-based and sector-specific inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption Staff Working Paper 2019-35 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L7, L71, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Private Information Flow and Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market Staff Working Paper 2011-5 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo Existing studies show that U.S. Treasury bond price changes are mainly driven by public information shocks, as manifested in macroeconomic news announcements and events. The literature also shows that heterogeneous private information contributes significantly to price discovery for U.S. Treasury securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
Estimating the Demand for Settlement Balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System Staff Working Paper 2012-15 Nellie Zhang This paper applies a static model of an interest rate corridor to the Canadian data, and estimates the aggregate demand for central-bank settlement balances in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C36, E, E4, E40, E5, E50, G, G0, G01
Equity Option-Implied Probability of Default and Equity Recovery Rate Staff Working Paper 2016-58 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi There is a close link between prices of equity options and the default probability of a firm. We show that in the presence of positive expected equity recovery, standard methods that assume zero equity recovery at default misestimate the option-implied default probability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33
The Market for Acquiring Card Payments from Small and Medium-Sized Canadian Merchants Staff Discussion Paper 2020-5 Angelika Welte, Jozsef Molnar This note uses industry data and a unique dataset of small and medium-sized merchants to provide insights into the acquirer-merchant market in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial services, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C2, D, D2, E, E4, E42
Preferences, Monetary Policy and Household Inflation Staff Working Paper 2024-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E52, E58
Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution Staff Working Paper 2021-24 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E5, E52, E6, E62
September 18, 2025 Making change—Accelerating payments innovation Remarks Ron Morrow CPA The One conference Ottawa, Ontario Ron Morrow, Executive Director of Payments, Supervision and Oversight, talks about innovations in the payments ecosystem. He also highlights the Bank’s new role as supervisor of payment service providers. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Cryptocurrencies, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Retail payments supervision
Technology Adoption in Input-Output Networks Staff Working Paper 2019-51 Xintong Han, Lei Xu We study how input-output networks affect the speed of technology adoption. In particular, we model the decision to adopt the programming language Python 3 by software packages. Python 3 provides advanced features but is not backward compatible with Python 2, which implies it comes with adoption costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, L, L2, L23, L8, L86, O, O1, O14, O3, O33