Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37
The Propagation of U.S. Shocks to Canada: Understanding the Role of Real-Financial Linkages Staff Working Paper 2010-40 Kimberly Beaton, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden This paper examines the transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks to Canada and, in particular, the role of financial frictions in affecting the transmission of these shocks. These questions are addressed within the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (de Resende et al. forthcoming), a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector and a detailed role for financial frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40
Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence Staff Working Paper 2007-36 Carlos De Resende This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E50, E6, E63
A Consistent Test for Multivariate Conditional Distributions Staff Working Paper 2009-34 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz We propose a new test for a multivariate parametric conditional distribution of a vector of variables yt given a conditional vector xt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22
Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions Staff Working Paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q50, Q55
June 23, 2004 Financial System Review - June 2004 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. In each issue, one or more subjects of particular interest are discussed as highlighted topics. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
December 15, 2023 The path to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Economic models, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks Staff Working Paper 2012-5 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity Staff Working Paper 2014-32 Ron Alquist, Olivier Coibion Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, F, F4
Demand for Canadian Banknotes from International Travel: Indirect Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic Staff Working Paper 2024-23 Hongyu Xiao This study uses the COVID-19 travel restrictions to estimate foreign demand for Canadian banknotes. It reveals that international visitors accounted for about 10% of all $100 CAD notes in circulation pre-pandemic, with each visitor carrying an average of $165 in hundred-dollar bills. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58, F, F2, F22