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3045 Results

A Look Inside the Box: Combining Aggregate and Marginal Distributions to Identify Joint Distributions

Staff Working Paper 2018-29 Marie-Hélène Felt
This paper proposes a method for estimating the joint distribution of two or more variables when only their marginal distributions and the distribution of their aggregates are observed. Nonparametric identification is achieved by modelling dependence using a latent common-factor structure.

Les sources des fluctuations des taux de change en Europe et leurs implications pour l'union monétaire

Technical Report No. 66 Alain DeSerres, René Lalonde
The objective of this paper is to provide an empirical evaluation of the degree of shock asymmetry between eight European countries that would form the core of a monetary union. Given that the relevant measure is the degree of real shock asymmetry, our approach is to use the observed movement in real exchange rates as […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F1, F15, F3, F31
April 5, 2009

Unexpected Inflation and Redistribution of Wealth in Canada

One of the most important arguments in favour of price stability is that unexpected inflation generates changes in the distribution of income and wealth among different economic agents. These redistributions occur because many loans are specified in fixed dollar terms and unexpected inflation redistributes wealth from creditors to debtors by reducing the real value of nominal assets and liabilities.

Extracting Information from the Business Outlook Survey Using Statistical Approaches

Staff Discussion Paper 2012-8 Lise Pichette
Since the autumn of 1997, the regional offices of the Bank of Canada have conducted quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada. These consultations, summarized in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), are structured around a survey questionnaire that covers topics of importance to the Bank, notably business activity, pressures on production capacity, prices and inflation, and credit conditions.
August 22, 2003

Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada

Financial market expectations regarding future changes in the target for the overnight rate of interest are an important source of information for the Bank of Canada. Financial markets are the mechanism through which the policy rate affects other financial variables, such as longer-term interest rates, the exchange rate, and other asset prices. An accurate measure of their expectations can therefore help policy-makers assess the potential impact of contemplated changes. Johnson focuses on the expectations hypothesis, which measures expectations of future levels of the target overnight rate as implied by current money market yields. Although expectations can be derived from the current yield on any short-term fixed-income asset, some assets have proven to be more accurate predictors than others. The implementation of a policy of fixed-announcements dates has coincided with the increased predictive power of these short-term assets. As a result of this improvement, a relatively simple model of the yield curve can now provide an accurate measure of financial market expectations.

An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks

Staff Working Paper 2012-5 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios
We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

A Financial Conditions Index for the United States

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-11 Kimberly Beaton, René Lalonde, Corinne Luu
The financial crisis of 2007–09 has highlighted the importance of developments in financial conditions for real economic activity. The authors estimate the effect of current and past shocks to financial variables on U.S. GDP growth by constructing two growthbased financial conditions indexes (FCIs) that measure the contribution to quarterly (annualized) GDP growth from financial conditions.

On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators

Staff Working Paper 2022-5 Shang-Jin Wei, Yinxi Xie
We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy.

Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-38 Marwan Chacra
The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices.
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