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3038 Results

Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes

Staff Working Paper 1996-13 Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller
This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics."
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12

The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-2 Corinne Luu
In this paper, the author considers whether fundamentals or other factors can explain the yen's ongoing weakness. In particular, the importance of capital outflows due to the carry trade and longer-term portfolio investment outflows, which may be delaying the adjustment of the yen, are investigated. A simple portfolio model is developed, composed of a speculative […]

Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model

Staff Working Paper 2023-42 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu, Shengxing Zhang
We develop a production-network model to capture how decentralized finance (DeFi) has evolved across different sectors of financial services. The model allows us to measure the value added by different DeFi sectors and to study how the connections across the sectors influence token prices.

Government Debt and Deficits In Canada: A Macro Simulation Analysis

Staff Working Paper 1995-4 Tiff Macklem, David Rose, Robert Tetlow
This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of rising government debt in Canada and the short-run costs and long-run benefits of stemming the rise. The discussion begins with an evaluation of the long-run consequences of increasing government indebtedness, first based on the simple arithmetic of the government's long-run budget constraint, and then based on simulations of […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy

The Employment Costs of Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity

Staff Working Paper 2000-1 Jean Farès, Seamus Hogan
In this paper, we use firm-level wage and employment data to address whether there is evidence of downward nominal-wage rigidity, and whether that rigidity is associated with a reduction in employment. We describe an estimation bias that can result when estimating reduced-form wage and employment equations and suggest a way of controlling for that bias. […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31

Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.

Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Rachit Lumb
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C4, C5, C52, C8, E, E0, E01, E2, E21
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