A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy Technical Report No. 94 Denise Côté, John Kuszczak, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu, Pierre St-Amant In this report, the authors examine and compare twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy with respect to their paradigm, structure, and dynamic properties. These open-economy models can be grouped into two economic paradigms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E5, E52, E58
An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector Staff Analytical Note 2025-25 Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova, Rishi Vala We examine the Canadian money market fund (MMF) sector and find that it has grown rapidly, holding a large share of treasury bills and commercial paper. Unlike in some other jurisdictions where investor outflows likely amplified stresses, Canadian MMFs experienced inflows during the March 2020 market turmoil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2, G23
Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes Staff Working Paper 1996-13 Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics." Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms Staff Working Paper 2024-44 Janet Hua Jiang, Rupal Kamdar, Kelin Lu, Daniela Puzzello We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D8, D84, E, E2, E5, E52, E7
June 23, 2005 A Brief Survey of Risk-Appetite Indexes Financial System Review - June 2005 Mark Illing, Meyer Aaron Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Employment Costs of Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity Staff Working Paper 2000-1 Jean Farès, Seamus Hogan In this paper, we use firm-level wage and employment data to address whether there is evidence of downward nominal-wage rigidity, and whether that rigidity is associated with a reduction in employment. We describe an estimation bias that can result when estimating reduced-form wage and employment equations and suggest a way of controlling for that bias. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31
Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places Staff Working Paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32
Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance Staff Working Paper 2023-35 Amina Enkhbold I study how banking market concentration and reliance on wholesale funding affect monetary policy transmission to mortgage rates. I find that this transmission is imperfect and dampens the response of consumption, output, and housing prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Monetary policy transmission, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Staff Discussion Paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2020-19 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xu We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12