International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums Staff Working Paper 2014-54 Gregory Bauer Using a panel logit framework, the paper provides an estimate of the likelihood of a house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The analysis shows that a simple measure of the degree of house price overvaluation contains a lot of information about subsequent price reversals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, E, E4, E43, R, R2, R21
Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes Staff Working Paper 1996-13 Simon van Norden, Huntley Schaller This paper uses regime-switching econometrics to study stock market crashes and to explore the ability of two very different economic explanations to account for historical crashes. The first explanation is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics." Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12
Private Information Flow and Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market Staff Working Paper 2011-5 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo Existing studies show that U.S. Treasury bond price changes are mainly driven by public information shocks, as manifested in macroeconomic news announcements and events. The literature also shows that heterogeneous private information contributes significantly to price discovery for U.S. Treasury securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
May 25, 2017 Upgrading the Payments Grid: The Payoffs Are Greater Than You Think Remarks Sylvain Leduc Payments Canada Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses how upgrading Canada’s core payment systems will contribute to financial stability and help the Bank keep inflation on target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems
November 16, 2017 Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Reinhard Ellwanger, Benjamin Sawatzky, Konrad Zmitrowicz Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
Reconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series Staff Working Paper 2016-1 Julien Champagne, André Kurmann, Jay Stewart Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E2, E24, E3, E30, J, J3, J30
The Employment Costs of Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity Staff Working Paper 2000-1 Jean Farès, Seamus Hogan In this paper, we use firm-level wage and employment data to address whether there is evidence of downward nominal-wage rigidity, and whether that rigidity is associated with a reduction in employment. We describe an estimation bias that can result when estimating reduced-form wage and employment equations and suggest a way of controlling for that bias. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31
Preferences, Monetary Policy and Household Inflation Staff Working Paper 2024-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E52, E58
Liquidity Efficiency and Distribution in the LVTS: Non-Neutrality of System Changes under Network Asymmetry Staff Discussion Paper 2008-11 Sean O'Connor, James Chapman, Kirby Millar The authors consider the liquidity efficiency of Tranche 2 of the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS T2) by examining, through an empirical analysis, some plausible strategic reactions of individual participants to a systemwide shock to available liquidity in the system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, L, L1, L13, L14