An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector Staff Analytical Note 2025-25 Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova, Rishi Vala We examine the Canadian money market fund (MMF) sector and find that it has grown rapidly, holding a large share of treasury bills and commercial paper. Unlike in some other jurisdictions where investor outflows likely amplified stresses, Canadian MMFs experienced inflows during the March 2020 market turmoil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2, G23
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements Staff Analytical Note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Risk Premium, Variance Premium and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2012-11 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Abderrahim Taamouti, Roméo Tedongap Expected returns vary when investors face time-varying investment opportunities. Long-run risk models (Bansal and Yaron 2004) and no-arbitrage affine models (Duffie, Pan, and Singleton 2000) emphasize sources of risk that are not observable to the econometrician. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6
Persistent Leverage in Portfolio Sorts: An Artifact of Measurement Error? Staff Working Paper 2014-55 Michael Mueller Studies such as Lemmon, Roberts and Zender (2008) demonstrate how stable firms’ capital structures are over time, and raise the question of whether new theories of capital structure are needed to explain these phenomena. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, G, G3, G32
October 16, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are diverging from actual inflation. Perceptions of high inflation are also leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high, and many consumers believe that the impacts of higher interest rates on their household spending are far from over. Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are more likely than other consumers to report being worse off due to high interest rates. Consumers’ plans to purchase services, such as vacations or concerts, are more widespread than plans to make major purchases of goods that are likely to be financed with loans, such as vehicles or appliances. Workers are reporting signs of job market cooling, such as more time spent looking for a new job, but they remain confident about the labour market. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
The Dynamic Canadian Debt Strategy Model Technical Report No. 127 Nicolas Audet, Joe Ning, Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We present a dynamic debt strategy model framework designed to assist sovereign debt portfolio managers in choosing an optimal debt issuance strategy. The main innovation of this framework is the introduction of dynamic issuance strategies, which allow issuance decisions to vary over time based on the model’s simulated state variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63, H68
The Sectoral Origins of Post-Pandemic Inflation Staff Working Paper 2025-37 Jan David Schneider This paper quantifies the contribution of sector-specific supply and demand shocks to personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation. It derives identification restrictions that are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with production networks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E31, E32
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, International topics, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31
March 2, 2017 Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future Remarks Timothy Lane Finance and Sustainability Initiative Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics