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3028 Results

Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity

Technical Report No. 63 Douglas Laxton, David Rose, Robert Tetlow
This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary pressures in an economy than from unfortunate random shocks. We describe a simple model that incorporates the key features of the policy control process. We use two versions of […]

A Practical Guide to Swap Curve Construction

Staff Working Paper 2000-17 Uri Ron
The swap market has enjoyed tremendous growth in the last decade. With government issues shrinking in supply and increased price volatilities, the swap term structure has emerged as an alternative pricing, benchmark, and hedging mechanism to the government term structure.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, International financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15

Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models

Staff Working Paper 2009-7 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian
Using identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-2 Corinne Luu
In this paper, the author considers whether fundamentals or other factors can explain the yen's ongoing weakness. In particular, the importance of capital outflows due to the carry trade and longer-term portfolio investment outflows, which may be delaying the adjustment of the yen, are investigated. A simple portfolio model is developed, composed of a speculative […]

How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms

Staff Working Paper 2024-44 Janet Hua Jiang, Rupal Kamdar, Kelin Lu, Daniela Puzzello
We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending.
March 9, 2010

Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment

This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation.
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