Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models Staff Working Paper 2009-7 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian Using identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update Staff Discussion Paper 2019-9 Helen Lao, Ceciline Steyn We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective Staff Working Paper 2012-23 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Kevin Moran The long-run relation between growth and inflation has not yet been studied in the context of nominal price and wage rigidities, despite the fact that these rigidities now figure prominently in workhorse macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, O, O3, O31, O4, O42
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
Persistent Leverage in Portfolio Sorts: An Artifact of Measurement Error? Staff Working Paper 2014-55 Michael Mueller Studies such as Lemmon, Roberts and Zender (2008) demonstrate how stable firms’ capital structures are over time, and raise the question of whether new theories of capital structure are needed to explain these phenomena. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, G, G3, G32
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles? Staff Working Paper 1996-11 Simon van Norden, Robert Vigfusson Work on testing for bubbles has caused much debate, much of which has focussed on methodology. Monte Carlo simulations reported in Evans (1991) showed that standard tests for unit roots and cointegration frequently reject the presence of bubbles even when such bubbles are present by construction. Evans referred to this problem as the pitfall of testing for bubbles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52
Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds? Staff Analytical Note 2018-21 Rohan Arora Mutual funds employ a host of tools to manage redemption run risk. However, our results suggest that Canadian corporate bond funds may be vulnerable to redemption runs, especially when they are less liquid and when market volatility is high. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
March 2, 2017 Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future Remarks Timothy Lane Finance and Sustainability Initiative Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics
The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message Staff Discussion Paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63