Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020 Staff Discussion Paper 2020-10 Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Guillaume Nolin, Karim Salhab, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Counterfeit Quality and Verification in a Monetary Exchange Staff Working Paper 2011-4 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao Recent studies on counterfeiting in a monetary search framework show that counterfeiting does not occur in a monetary equilibrium. These findings are inconsistent with the observation that counterfeiting of bank notes has been a serious problem in some countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E50
Fooled by Search: Housing Prices, Turnover and Bubbles Staff Working Paper 2012-3 Brian Peterson his paper develops and estimates a model to explain the behaviour of house prices in the United States. The main finding is that over 70% of the increase in house prices relative to trend during the increase of house prices in the United States from 1995 to 2006 can be explained by a pricing mechanism where market participants are ‘Fooled by Search.’ Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, R, R2, R21
Credit Risk and Collateral Demand in a Retail Payment System Staff Discussion Paper 2016-16 Héctor Pérez Saiz, Gabriel Xerri The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) that are designed to cover the exposure of a defaulting member. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23
December 21, 2007 An Approach to Stress Testing the Canadian Mortgage Portfolio Financial System Review - December 2007 Moez Souissi Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions? Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, G, G3, G31, G32
Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System Staff Working Paper 2002-41 Carol Ann Northcott Payments systems operate virtually unnoticed in our daily lives and yet are crucial to a wellfunctioning economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21
February 8, 2018 At the Crossroads: Innovation and Inclusive Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins G7 Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth Montebello, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses technological progress and how policy-makers can harness it for economic growth that benefits everyone. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 19, 2015 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 In this issue, Bank researchers discuss the muted recovery from the 2007–09 financial crisis and possible causes. There are also discussions about the Bank’s new Canadian survey of household expectations, measuring both durable goods and housing prices in the CPI and how regulatory changes may affect monetary policy operating frameworks. In the final article, improvements to the management of Canada’s foreign exchange reserves are introduced. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review