October 16, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023 Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are diverging from actual inflation. Perceptions of high inflation are also leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high, and many consumers believe that the impacts of higher interest rates on their household spending are far from over. Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are more likely than other consumers to report being worse off due to high interest rates. Consumers’ plans to purchase services, such as vacations or concerts, are more widespread than plans to make major purchases of goods that are likely to be financed with loans, such as vehicles or appliances. Workers are reporting signs of job market cooling, such as more time spent looking for a new job, but they remain confident about the labour market. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research Staff Discussion Paper 2021-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Jesse Johal, Jessica Lee, Andreas Uthemann One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G20, G21, G23
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
August 15, 2013 Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
January 27, 2012 Strengthening Defined-Benefit Pension Plans Financial System Review - December 2005 Jim Armstrong, Jack Selody Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements Staff Discussion Paper 2011-3 David Bolder, Simon Deeley The Canadian Debt Strategy Model helps debt managers determine their optimal financing strategy. The model’s code and documentation are available to the public. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63
Monetary Policy Governance: Bank of Canada Practices to Support Policy Effectiveness Staff Discussion Paper 2024-14 Brigitte Desroches, Sharon Kozicki, Laure Simon We examine different monetary policy governance structures and discuss the important roles of non-legislated processes and practices. We also provide an update on monetary policy governance at the Bank of Canada and how it has evolved over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E58
Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints Staff Working Paper 2023-51 Jason Allen, Milena Wittwer We examine how intermediary capitalization affects asset prices in a framework that allows for intermediary market power. We introduce a model in which capital-constrained intermediaries buy or trade an asset in an imperfectly competitive market, and we show that weaker capital constraints lead to both higher prices and intermediary markups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D44, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility Staff Working Paper 2014-45 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Nicolas Vincent Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, L, L1, L11, L2, L25, L8, L81, M, M3, M31
Optimal Margining and Margin Relief in Centrally Cleared Derivatives Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-29 Radoslav Raykov A major policy challenge posed by derivatives clearinghouses is that their collateral requirements can rise sharply in times of stress, reducing market liquidity and further exacerbating downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21