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2994 Results

Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports

Staff Working Paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.

Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries

Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50

Labour Supply and Firm Size

Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul
This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31

Rediscounting Under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard

Staff Working Paper 2007-51 James Chapman, Antoine Martin
Freeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature, these policies are indistinguishable.

Sluggish Forecasts

Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.

Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps

Staff Analytical Note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?
August 15, 2013

Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies

The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37

Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models

We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1
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