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3045 Results

November 16, 2017

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017

Is shale oil production in the United States a factor in the 2014 oil price decline? Which methods of payment are commonly accepted by merchants in Canada? Bank researchers share their insights on these topics. They also provide an update on the neutral rate of interest as well as on changes to the Bank’s operational framework for market operations.

Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

Staff Working Paper 2012-1 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43

Credit Crunches from Occasionally Binding Bank Borrowing Constraints

Staff Working Paper 2017-57 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick
We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings.

Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields

Staff Working Paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12

Monetary Policy Governance: Bank of Canada Practices to Support Policy Effectiveness

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-14 Brigitte Desroches, Sharon Kozicki, Laure Simon
We examine different monetary policy governance structures and discuss the important roles of non-legislated processes and practices. We also provide an update on monetary policy governance at the Bank of Canada and how it has evolved over time.

The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-1 Claude Lavoie, Hope Pioro
The authors assess the performance of the Canadian economy under a variety of interest rate rules when the zero bound on nominal interest rates can bind. Their assessment is based on numerical simulations of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model in a stochastic environment. Consistent with the literature, the authors find that the probability and consequences […]

Multibank Holding Companies and Bank Stability

Staff Working Paper 2018-51 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston
This paper studies the relationship between bank holding company affiliation and the individual and systemic risk of banks. Using the 2005 hurricane season in the US as an exogenous shock to bank balance sheets, we show that banks that are part of a holding parent company are more resilient than independent banks.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
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