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3045 Results

Counterfeit Quality and Verification in a Monetary Exchange

Staff Working Paper 2011-4 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao
Recent studies on counterfeiting in a monetary search framework show that counterfeiting does not occur in a monetary equilibrium. These findings are inconsistent with the observation that counterfeiting of bank notes has been a serious problem in some countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E50

Sluggish Forecasts

Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.

Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual?

Staff Working Paper 2013-17 Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee, Linda Tesar
Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods.
August 15, 2013

Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies

The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37

Comparison of Bayesian and Sample Theory Parametric and Semiparametric Binary Response Models

We use graphic processing unit computing to compare Bayesian and sample theory semiparametric binary response models. Our findings show that optimal bandwidth does not outperform regular bandwidth in binary semiparametric models.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C3, C35, C5, C51, C6, C63, D, D1

Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments

Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, H, H3, H31, J, J2, J22, J24

Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment

Staff Working Paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant
We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Staff Working Paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): G, G5, Q, Q5, Q54
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