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3045 Results

Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-1 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Daniel de Munnik, Laura Murphy
This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, N, N7, N71, N72

Sectoral Uncertainty

Staff Working Paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Staff Working Paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): G, G5, Q, Q5, Q54

Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander
Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60

Counterfeit Quality and Verification in a Monetary Exchange

Staff Working Paper 2011-4 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao
Recent studies on counterfeiting in a monetary search framework show that counterfeiting does not occur in a monetary equilibrium. These findings are inconsistent with the observation that counterfeiting of bank notes has been a serious problem in some countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E50

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II

Staff Analytical Note 2017-1 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin
This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports

Staff Working Paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress
This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.
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