Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports Staff Working Paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32
Rediscounting Under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard Staff Working Paper 2007-51 James Chapman, Antoine Martin Freeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature, these policies are indistinguishable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G20
Labour Supply and Firm Size Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31
A Market-Based Approach to Reverse Stress Testing the Financial System Staff Working Paper 2025-32 Javier Ojea Ferreiro This article examines what market conditions lead to extreme losses in global financial systems. Using a reverse stress testing approach, it introduces two measures of systemic risk by starting from the tail losses and working backward to identify the events most closely associated with them. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C02, C3, C32, C5, C58, G, G2, G21
December 17, 2008 From Hindsight to Foresight Remarks Mark Carney Women in Capital Markets Toronto, Ontario It has been a difficult year for capital markets professionals. The turmoil has deteriorated into a full-blown financial crisis. Most financial markets have experienced historic falls in prices, and some are strained to the point of closing. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Counterfeit Quality and Verification in a Monetary Exchange Staff Working Paper 2011-4 Ben Fung, Enchuan Shao Recent studies on counterfeiting in a monetary search framework show that counterfeiting does not occur in a monetary equilibrium. These findings are inconsistent with the observation that counterfeiting of bank notes has been a serious problem in some countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E50
The Trade War in Numbers Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
Sluggish Forecasts Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02
Credit Crunches from Occasionally Binding Bank Borrowing Constraints Staff Working Paper 2017-57 Tom D. Holden, Paul Levine, Jonathan Swarbrick We present a model in which banks and other financial intermediaries face both occasionally binding borrowing constraints and costs of equity issuance. Near the steady state, these intermediaries can raise equity finance at no cost through retained earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E51, G, G2