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We investigate the economic forces behind the secular decline in bond yields. Before the anchoring of inflation in the mid-1990s, nominal shocks drove inflation, output and bond yields. Afterward, the impacts of nominal shocks were much less significant.

A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.

The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The December 2015 issue features two reports on significant developments in the financial system related to household finances: the importance of residential mortgage securitization for Canadian housing finance and the changing patterns of indebtedness of Canadian households.

The strengths of the twin cities - in research, advanced manufacturing, and information technology, among other sectors - are well known. Less well known, perhaps, is the region's success in responding effectively to changes in the world economy.

This note discusses several ways the BoC could increase communication around future policy, leveraging methods other central banks have used, and discussing the pros and cons of each method for the BoC, keeping in mind that policy rate forecasts typically are not informative beyond 1 or 2 quarters.

Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise.

This issue of the Financial System Review focuses on the impact of COVID 19. The pandemic presents an unprecedented shock to the Canadian economy. This report identifies the effects on the Canadian financial system and explains how recent actions by the Bank and other policy-makers are helping to manage them. It further describes how a resilient financial system can help households and businesses smooth the effects of the COVID-19 shock and prepare for a robust recovery.

We use a randomization of question placement in surveys to estimate the causal effect on financial literacy results. We find that financial literacy questions placed at the end of a survey lead to a drop in financial literacy of 5%–15%. This research suggests a measure of financial literacy adapted for survey length.

How do central bank crisis interventions calm market fears? Using options data, we measure the perceived risk of large asset price drops across horizons from two weeks to ten years. Studying the Fed's response to the 2020 turmoil, we find asset purchases reduce short-term fears while interest rate actions shape long-term expectations.

At the time of last November’s Monetary Policy Report, two issues dominated the analysis: the global economic slowdown and the fallout from the September terrorist attacks.