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The author traces developments in the Canadian covered bond market. Covered bonds could be a valuable way to provide a stable and diverse source of funding, particularly for smaller banks. However, higher issuance could increase banks’ vulnerability to liquidity stress, with implications for the broader financial system. The author argues that these benefits and challenges can be balanced in a well-designed policy framework.

When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary job separations using Canadian job separation records.

The Bank expects a sharp rebound in economic activity in the reopening phase of the recovery, followed by a more prolonged recuperation phase.

Between 2002 and 2008, global commodity prices rose to unprecedented levels. This article examines the process of adjustment to the commodity boom in four industrialized, commodity-exporting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway). The article focuses on both the direct adjustment within the commodity-producing sectors (via increased employment and capital spending) and the indirect adjustment in the macro economy. The analysis finds that the indirect adjustment process, which was triggered by the increase in incomes that the commodity-price boom generated, has been the most important part of the adjustment in all four economies. Through this channel, aggregate demand rose, exchange rates appreciated, and adjustment was facilitated in other sectors, such as manufacturing and construction.

The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting.

How is the stability of the financial sector affected by competition in the deposit market and by decisions banks make about transparency? We find that policies that aim to increase bank competition lead to higher bank deposit rates, increasing both withdrawal incentives and instability.

We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.

Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.

Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.