An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5
What Drives Episodes of Settlement Fails in the Government of Canada Bond Market? Staff Working Paper 2017-54 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Pinnington, Adrian Walton We study settlement fails for trades in the Government of Canada bond market. We find that settlement fails do not occur independently. Using a novel and comprehensive dataset, we examine three drivers of fails. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G1, G2, G21, L, L1
The Role of Credit in International Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2012-36 TengTeng Xu This paper examines the role of bank credit in modeling and forecasting business cycle fluctuations, and investigates the international transmission of US credit shocks, using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and associated country-specific error correction models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G2, G21
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2020-14 Guihai Zhao This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12
A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2008-9 Hajime Tomura This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy and finds that an improvement in the terms of trade causes a housing boom-bust cycle if the duration of the improvement is uncertain. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F4, F41
March 28, 2005 The Thiessen Lectures Lectures delivered by Gordon G. Thiessen, Governor of the Bank of Canada 1994 to 2001 Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs
Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products Staff Working Paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff Working Paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32
Sectoral Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44