Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data Staff Working Paper 2017-30 Jose Fique In complex and interconnected banking systems, counterparty risk does not depend only on the risk of the immediate counterparty but also on the risk of others in the network of exposures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G21
Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods Staff Working Paper 2019-32 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov Recent consumer and merchant surveys show a decrease in the use of cash at the point of sale. Increasingly, consumers and merchants have access to a growing array of payment innovations as substitutes for cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L1, L13, L15, L8, L81, L9, L96
Why Is Cash (Still) So Entrenched? Insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment Survey Staff Discussion Paper 2012-2 Carlos Arango, Dylan Hogg, Alyssa Lee The authors present key insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment survey. In the survey, about 6,800 participants completed a questionnaire with detailed information regarding their personal finances, as well as their use and perceptions of different payment methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41, L, L8, L81
Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks Staff Working Paper 2017-23 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, F, F4, F41, F44, F6, F62
It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team Is About to Lose a Soccer Match Staff Working Paper 2014-2 Michael Ehrmann, David-Jan Jansen The end result of major sporting events has been shown to affect next-day stock returns through shifts in investor mood. By studying the soccer matches that led to the elimination of France and Italy from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we show that mood-related pricing effects can materialize as sporting events unfold. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G02, G1, G12, G14, G15
Provincial Credit Ratings in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis Staff Working Paper 1996-6 Stella Cheung The author estimates the relationship between the provincial credit ratings, as assessed by Standard & Poor's, and a number of economic variables, using the ordered probit methodology. All the variables in her estimation prove to be significant. In particular, she finds that downgrades take place at almost the same speed at different levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, based on a pooled sample of nine provinces. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): H, H6, H63
Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios Staff Working Paper 2012-1 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff Analytical Note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52
Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment Staff Working Paper 2007-34 Selim Elekdag, René Lalonde, Douglas Laxton, Dirk Muir, Paolo Pesenti We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, F, F3, F32, F4, F47