April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada Staff analytical note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
A Q-Theory of Banks Staff working paper 2021-44 Juliane Beganau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, Matías Vieyra Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
March 26, 2014 Oversight Activities during 2013 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act This report reviews the Bank of Canada's oversight activities during 2013 and priorities for 2014 pursuant to the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act (PCSA). This annual report is intended to provide transparency and accountability regarding the Bank's activities in this area. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff analytical note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction Staff working paper 2017-51 Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Naoki Wakamori Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C36, D, D2, D22, L, L4, L41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff discussion paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
October 26, 2011 Monetary Policy Report – October 2011 The Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.1 per cent in 2011, 1.9 per cent in 2012 and 2.9 per cent in 2013. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
The 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study Staff discussion paper 2023-1 Angelika Welte, Joy Wu The rise in digital payment innovations has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The Bank conducted the 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study to study trends in merchant cash acceptance and monitor conditions for the potential issuance of a central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound Staff working paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
How Long is Forever in the Laboratory? Three Implementations of an Infinite-Horizon Monetary Economy Staff working paper 2021-16 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang Standard monetary models adopt an infinite horizon with discounting. Testing these models in the lab requires implementing this horizon within a limited time frame. We compare three approaches to such an implementation and discuss their relative advantages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission