A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff analytical note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock Staff working paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment Staff working paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions Staff working paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Settlement Balances Deconstructed Staff discussion paper 2022-13 Parnell Chu, Grahame Johnson, Scott Kinnear, Karen McGuinness, Matthew McNeely Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, public interest in the Bank’s balance sheet and, more specifically, the size of settlement balances, has grown. This paper deconstructs the concept of settlement balances and provides some context on their history, current state and possible future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E59, E6, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
October 15, 1998 The Canadian Experience with Targets for Inflation Control Remarks Gordon Thiessen Queen's University Kingston, Ontario As an economist who worked as a banker for most of his career, Douglas Gibson brought an interesting perspective to public policy issues, to the relationship between government and business, and to the contribution of outside economists to government policies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff analytical note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks Staff discussion paper 2023-31 Karen McGuinness While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E63, G, G3, G32, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, Climate change
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada Staff analytical note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff discussion paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures