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2126 Results

Monetary Policy Spillover to Small Open Economies: Is the Transmission Different under Low Interest Rates?

Does the transmission of monetary policy change when interest rates are low or negative? We shed light on this question by analyzing the international bank lending channels of monetary policy using regulatory data on banks from four small open economies: Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway.

Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System?

Staff discussion paper 2020-2 Hanna Armelius, Carl Andreas Claussen, Scott Hendry
In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system.

Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock

Staff working paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt
Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly.

Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions

Staff working paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur
Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market

Staff analytical note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger
This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth.

Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment

This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.

A Q-Theory of Banks

Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values.
November 13, 2014

Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?

When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
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