From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The Labor Market Impact of Fiscal Policy Across Gender Staff Working Paper 2021-42 Alica Ida Bonk, Laure Simon The effects of fiscal policy shocks on labour market outcomes across gender depend on the type of public expenditure. Women benefit most from increases in the government wage bill, while men are the main beneficiaries of higher investment spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, J, J1, J16, J2, J21
Gold Prices and Inflation Staff Working Paper 2007-35 Greg Tkacz Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E44
Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach Staff Working Paper 2015-32 Kartik Anand, Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy Staff Working Paper 2016-31 Gabriel Bruneau, Ian Christensen, Césaire Meh We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, H, H2, H23
Food Aid Delivery, Food Security and Aggregate Welfare in a Small Open Economy: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 1998-1 Patrick Osakwe A small-open-economy model is developed to examine how the method of food aid disbursement affects labor employment, food security and aggregate welfare, in recipient countries, in an environment in which private sector firms pay efficiency wages to induce effort. Two forms of food aid delivery are considered: first is project food aid, under which food […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): J, J4, O, O1, Q, Q1
Mandatory Retention Rules and Bank Risk Staff Working Paper 2023-3 Yuteng Cheng This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the unintended consequences of mandatory retention rules in securitization. It proposes a novel model showing that while retention strengthens monitoring, it may also encourage banks to shift risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
October 26, 2018 Staff economic projections These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: An application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model Staff Analytical Note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6
Risk-Neutral Moment-Based Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Staff Working Paper 2017-55 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou This paper provides a novel methodology for estimating option pricing models based on risk-neutral moments. We synthesize the distribution extracted from a panel of option prices and exploit linear relationships between risk-neutral cumulants and latent factors within the continuous time affine stochastic volatility framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12