October 26, 2018 Staff economic projections These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are released once a year with a five-year lag.
Database of Sovereign Defaults, 2017 Technical Report No. 101 David Beers, Jamshid Mavalwalla Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
Why Is Cash (Still) So Entrenched? Insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment Survey Staff Discussion Paper 2012-2 Carlos Arango, Dylan Hogg, Alyssa Lee The authors present key insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment survey. In the survey, about 6,800 participants completed a questionnaire with detailed information regarding their personal finances, as well as their use and perceptions of different payment methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41, L, L8, L81
It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team Is About to Lose a Soccer Match Staff Working Paper 2014-2 Michael Ehrmann, David-Jan Jansen The end result of major sporting events has been shown to affect next-day stock returns through shifts in investor mood. By studying the soccer matches that led to the elimination of France and Italy from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we show that mood-related pricing effects can materialize as sporting events unfold. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G02, G1, G12, G14, G15
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff Analytical Note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52
Exploring Differences in Household Debt Across Euro Area Countries and the United States Staff Working Paper 2015-16 Dimitris Christelis, Michael Ehrmann, Dimitris Georgarakos We use internationally comparable household-level data for ten euro area economies and the United States to investigate cross-country differences in debt holdings and the potential of debt overhang. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G1, G11
Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data Staff Working Paper 2012-24 Naoki Wakamori, Angelika Welte Recent studies find that cash remains a dominant payment choice for small-value transactions despite the prevalence of alternative means of payment such as debit and credit cards. For policy makers an important question is whether consumers truly prefer using cash or merchants restrict card usage. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C2, D, D1, G, G2
May 16, 2018 The (Mostly) Long and Short of Potential Output Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Ottawa Economics Association and CFA Society Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the importance of potential output to monetary policy, as well as policy challenges and opportunities in a world of low potential output growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
Durées d'utilisation des facteurs et fonction de production : une estimation par la méthode des moments généralisés en système Staff Working Paper 2004-12 Eric Heyer, Florian Pelgrin, Arnaud Sylvain Although a number of studies have demonstrated the importance of the degree of factor utilization in economic analysis, the impact of the durations of utilization in a production function remains largely unknown, particularly in terms of the duration of equipment utilization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, J, J2, J23