Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff analytical note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada Staff analytical note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
May 13, 2014 Understanding Platform-Based Digital Currencies Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Ben Fung, Hanna Halaburda Given technological advances and the widespread use of the Internet, various digital currencies have emerged. In most cases, Internet platforms such as Facebook and Amazon restrict the functionality of their digital currencies to enhance the business model and maximize their profits. While platform-based digital currencies could increase the efficiency of retail payments, they could also raise some important policy issues if they were to become widely used outside of the platform. Thus, it is important to closely monitor the evolution of these digital currencies. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42
Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards Staff working paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
Information Contagion and Systemic Risk Staff working paper 2017-29 Co-Pierre Georg, Toni Ahnert We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
May 23, 2003 The Bank of Canada: Moving Towards Transparency Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2003 John Chant During the 1990s the Bank of Canada made several changes that transformed its conduct of monetary policy. In the 1960s and 1970s, policy decisions were made in an environment characterized by instrument opaqueness and goal opaqueness, which tended to shield the Bank's operations from scrutiny and accountability. Since the 1970s the Bank has moved towards transparency and openness by rejecting multiple policy instruments and adopting a single, well-defined goal of inflation control. A recent survey has shown that the Bank of Canada is in the middle range of central banks with regard to its transparency and has lost points for not publishing the forecasts that shape its policy or the minutes and voting records of its governing body. Chant suggests that the public has benefited significantly from the changes the Bank has made, but that it should continue to support research on the benefits of low and stable inflation and continually inform other policy-makers and the public of the results. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
January 6, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 Cover page Silver Presentation Salver The salver, which was bequeathed to the Bank of Canada by Lady Macmillan in 1967, is part of the artifact collection of the Bank of Canada Archives. Photography by Mone Cheng, Innovacom, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
March 11, 2021 COVID-19, savings and household spending Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Restaurants Canada Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how COVID-19 has affected savings and the outlook household spending. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
June 7, 2018 Financial System Review: Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Risks—June 2018 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report