From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition Staff working paper 2023-24 Ajit Desai, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Jacob Sharples, Phoebe Tian, Nellie Zhang We quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Strategic Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service Staff working paper 2020-55 Lerby Ergun, Andreas Uthemann We look at the informational content of consensus pricing in opaque over-the-counter markets. We show that the availability of price data informs participants mainly about other participants’ valuations, rather than about the value of a financial security. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi Staff working paper 2025-12 Phoebe Tian, Yu Zhu This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, D47, G, G2, G20, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
From Stress to Strategy: How Banks Balance the Scales Staff working paper 2026-26 Ruben Hipp, Javier Ojea Ferreiro This paper develops a stress-testing framework in which banks strategically adjust their balance sheets in response to regulatory constraints and market conditions. Applied to Canada’s largest banks, it quantifies the effects of macroprudential policies on lending and identifies systemic vulnerabilities through reverse stress testing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C73, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, H, H1, H12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models
Unpacking interest rate uncertainty in 2025 Staff analytical paper 2026-25 Harshbir Kaur, Rishi Vala Amid heightened Canada–US trade tensions in 2025, financial markets showed signs that investors had greater difficulty anticipating near-term Bank of Canada interest rate decisions. We look at the Overnight Index Swap prices and intraday Government of Canada yields to identify the main driver of uncertainty around interest rate decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 22, 2012 Globalisation, Financial Stability and Employment Remarks Mark Carney Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses globalization, financial stability and employment. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards Staff working paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada Staff analytical note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data Staff discussion paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting