Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff Discussion Paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63
Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy Staff Working Paper 2016-31 Gabriel Bruneau, Ian Christensen, Césaire Meh We perform an analysis to determine how well the introduction of a countercyclical loanto- value (LTV) ratio can reduce household indebtedness and housing price fluctuations compared with a monetary policy rule augmented with house price inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E42, H, H2, H23
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic Staff Working Paper 2020-54 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E62, J, J6, J64
Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation? Staff Working Paper 1997-6 Dinah Maclean While the service sector has been growing rapidly as a share of total output, aggregate productivity growth has generally lagged behind that of the goods sector. In this report, the author assesses a range of explanations for lagging service sector productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): L, L8, L80, O, O4, O47
Do Peer Group Members Outperform Individual Borrowers? A Test of Peer Group Lending Using Canadian Micro-Credit Data Staff Working Paper 2003-33 Rafael Gomez, Eric Santor Microfinance institutions now serve over 10 million poor households in the developing and developed world, and much of their success has been attributed to their innovative use of peer group lending. There is very little empirical evidence, however, to suggest that group lending schemes offer a superior institutional design over lending programs that serve individual borrowers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): E, J, J2, J23, O, O1, O17
Optimal Quantitative Easing in a Monetary Union Staff Working Paper 2020-49 Serdar Kabaca, Renske Maas, Kostas Mavromatis, Romanos Priftis How should a central bank conduct quantitative easing (QE) in a monetary union when regions differ in their size and portfolio characteristics? Optimal QE policy suggests allocating greater purchases from the region that faces stronger portfolio frictions, and not necessarily according to each region’s size. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions Staff Working Paper 2020-16 Danilo Leiva-Leon, Luis Uzeda We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Monetary Payoff and Utility Function in Adaptive Learning Models Staff Working Paper 2019-50 Erhao Xie When players repeatedly face an identical or similar game (e.g., coordination game, technology adoption game, or product choice game), they may learn through experience to perform better in the future. This learning behaviour has important economic implications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, C7, C72, C9, C92
June 22, 2011 Access to Central Clearing Services for Over-the-Counter Derivatives Financial System Review - June 2011 Carolyn A. Wilkins, Jonathan Witmer, Joshua Slive Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37