Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
May 16, 2018 The (Mostly) Long and Short of Potential Output Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Ottawa Economics Association and CFA Society Ottawa Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the importance of potential output to monetary policy, as well as policy challenges and opportunities in a world of low potential output growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity
Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions Staff Discussion Paper 2020-7 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Lawrence L. Schembri We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
Changes in Payment Timing in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System Staff Working Paper 2015-20 Nellie Zhang This paper uncovers trends in payment timing in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) from 2003 to 2011. Descriptive analysis shows that LVTS payment activity has not been peaking in the late afternoon since 2008, and the improvement was most significant in 2009. Content Type(s): Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20
Does Indexation Bias the Estimated Frequency of Price Adjustment? Staff Working Paper 2007-15 Maral Kichian, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We assess the implications of price indexation for estimated frequency of price adjustment in sticky price models of business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
Lagging Productivity Growth in the Service Sector: Mismeasurement, Mismanagement or Misinformation? Staff Working Paper 1997-6 Dinah Maclean While the service sector has been growing rapidly as a share of total output, aggregate productivity growth has generally lagged behind that of the goods sector. In this report, the author assesses a range of explanations for lagging service sector productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): L, L8, L80, O, O4, O47
Nominal Rigidities and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in a Structural Model of a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2003-29 Steve Ambler, Ali Dib, Nooman Rebei The authors analyze exchange rate pass-through in an estimated structural model of a small open economy that incorporates three types of nominal rigidity (wages and the prices of domestically produced and imported goods) and eight different structural shocks. The model is estimated using quarterly data from Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F3, F31, F33
Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada Staff Working Paper 2003-26 Grahame Johnson Financial market expectations regarding future policy actions by the Bank of Canada are an important input into the Bank's decision-making process, and they can be measured using a variety of sources. The author develops a simple expectations-based model to focus on measuring interest rate expectations that are implied by the current level of money market yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): G, G1