The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings Staff Working Paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51
Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2022-3 Wenting Song, Samuel Stern How much attention do firms pay to macroeconomic news? Through a novel text-based measure, two facts emerge. First, attention is polarized. Most firms either never or always pay attention to economic conditions. Second, it is countercyclical. During recessions, more firms pay attention, and firms pay greater attention to macroeconomic news. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52
Canadians’ access to cash in 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2025-13 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao, Daneal O’Habib, Stephen Wild This study updates our measure of Canadians' access to cash through automated banking machines and financial institution branches. We find that in 2023 overall access to cash remains stable, while rural Canadians continue having less access. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
La politique monétaire a-t-elle des effets asymétriques sur l'emploi? Staff Working Paper 1998-17 Lise Pichette Several economists, including Cover (1992), Ammer and Brunner (1995), Macklem, Paquet, and Phaneuf (1996), have worked over the past few years to determine whether monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects on output. These authors have generally found that negative monetary shocks tend to reduce output growth significantly, and that positive shocks generally have a weaker […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5
On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output Staff Working Paper 2001-22 Maral Kichian, Richard Luger This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58
March 12, 2012 Promoting Growth, Mitigating Cycles and Inequality: The Role of Price and Financial Stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Brazil-Canada Chamber of Commerce São Paulo, Brazil Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how price and financial stability help promote growth and mitigate economic cycles and inequality. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 30, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37
Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2009-10 Daniel de Munnik, David Dupuis, Mark Illing A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, C81, C9, C90