The Distributional Origins of the Canada-US GDP and Labour Productivity Gaps Staff working paper 2024-49 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Joel Rodrigue We find the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States. The large gaps in income for high-income earners help distinguish between alternative explanations of this persistent gap in GDP per adult. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J6, J61, N, N1, N12, O, O4, O47, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers Staff analytical note 2017-16 Sanjana Bhatnagar, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit, Elise Martin, Vikram Rai, Renaud St-Cyr, Subrata Sarker, Kristina Hess Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, F, F0 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation Staff working paper 2022-27 Wei Cui, Randall Wright, Yu Zhu We study economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets then retrade it in secondary markets after information on idiosyncratic productivity arrives. Our secondary markets incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining and liquidity frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Unintended Consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program Staff working paper 2024-11 Phoebe Tian, Chen Zheng We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G5, G51, L, L5, L51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
The Consumer Value Proposition for a Hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar Staff discussion paper 2024-16 Martine Warren, Bill Laur, Ted Garanzotis, Sebastian Hernandez We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Seeking Safety Staff working paper 2018-41 Toni Ahnert, Enrico Perotti The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations? Staff working paper 2020-35 Narayan Bulusu Central banks communicate the results of open market operations. This helps participants in financial markets more accurately estimate the prevailing demand and supply conditions in the market for overnight loans. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff working paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 20, 1997 Monetary Policy Report – November 1997 In the last half-year, the economic expansion in Canada has become well established, supported by low inflation, highly stimulative monetary conditions, and a strong U.S. economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report