Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving? Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
February 4, 2010 The Coming Thaw Remarks Mark Carney Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba It is a pleasure to be here in Winnipeg. Today, I intend to elaborate on elements of the Bank of Canada's economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Channels of Transmission: How Mortgage Rates Affect House Prices and Rents in Canada Staff analytical paper 2026-2 Nishaad Rao, Tao Wang We use Canadian data to examine how monetary policy affects house prices and the consumer price index for rent through exogenous changes in the mortgage interest rates. It finds that the price and rent impacts operate through various channels and that these impacts vary by region. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, R, R2, R21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System Staff working paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff working paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Managing Risk Taking with Interest Rate Policy and Macroprudential Regulations Staff working paper 2016-47 Simona Cociuba, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt We develop a model in which a financial intermediary’s investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance and characterize the policy tools that implement efficient risk taking. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G11, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff discussion paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
The Distributional Origins of the Canada-US GDP and Labour Productivity Gaps Staff working paper 2024-49 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Joel Rodrigue We find the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States. The large gaps in income for high-income earners help distinguish between alternative explanations of this persistent gap in GDP per adult. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J6, J61, N, N1, N12, O, O4, O47, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
November 6, 2024 Canada’s mortgage market—A question of balance Remarks Carolyn Rogers Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers looks at the mortgage market in Canada—past, present and future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework