Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43
Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2004-6 Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran Evidence suggests that banks, like firms, face financial frictions when raising funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
Price Formation and Liquidity Provision in Short-Term Fixed Income Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-27 Chris D'Souza, Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp Differences in market structures may affect the manner in which fundamental information is incorporated into prices. High levels of quote and trade transparency plus substantial quoting obligations in European government securities markets ensure that prices are informationally efficient. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14, G15
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55
Search-for-Yield in Canadian Fixed-Income Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2014-3 Sermin Gungor, Jesus Sierra This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the risk-taking behavior of fixed-income mutual funds in Canada. We consider different measures of the stance of monetary policy and investigate active variation in mutual funds’ risk exposure in response to monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G23
International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada Staff Working Paper 2014-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Abeer Reza, Kristina Hess The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F42, F44
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2017-28 Jasmina Arifovic, John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, C9, C92, E, E4, E41
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71
The Behaviour of Consumer Prices Across Provinces Staff Discussion Paper 2011-2 Gordon Wilkinson Measures of core inflation enable a central bank to distinguish price movements that are transitory and generated by non-monetary events from those that are more permanent and related to prior monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31