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2182 Results

Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours

Staff working paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie
This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions.

Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency

Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.

Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System

Staff discussion paper 2022-3 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang
We study the impact of the Bank of Canada’s choice of settlement mechanism in Lynx on participant behaviors, liquidity usage, payment delays and the overall operational efficiency of the new system.
September 6, 2018

An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan
Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries*

We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output.
June 2, 2022

Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment

Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched.

Simulating Intraday Transactions in the Canadian Retail Batch System

Staff working paper 2023-1 Nellie Zhang
This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.

Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?

Staff working paper 2019-11 Klaus Adam, Dmitry Matveev, Stefan Nagel
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence.

The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada

Staff working paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country.
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