Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real? Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43
Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing Staff Working Paper 2014-47 Serdar Kabaca This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E25, E4, E44, F, F4, F41
Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways Staff Discussion Paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Bank Capital, Agency Costs, and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2004-6 Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran Evidence suggests that banks, like firms, face financial frictions when raising funds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial institutions, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019 Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
International Borrowing, Specialization and Unemployment in a Small, Open Economy Staff Working Paper 1998-2 Patrick Osakwe, Shouyong Shi Empirical evidence suggests that the unemployment rate and the export/GNP ratio are positively correlated with external debt across developing countries. This paper develops a dynamic model that provides an explanation for the aforementioned relationships. The central idea of our paper is that international borrowing affects unemployment and specialization patterns by unevenly changing the risk-sharing structure—across […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, J, J6
What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19? Staff Analytical Note 2020-20 Kim Huynh, Helen Lao, Patrick Sabourin, Angelika Welte The official consumer price index (CPI) inflation measure, based on a fixed basket set before the COVID 19 pandemic, may not fully reflect what consumers are currently experiencing. We partnered with Statistics Canada to construct a more representative index for the pandemic with weights based on real-time transaction and survey data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E3, E31, E4, E42, E5, E52
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2017-28 Jasmina Arifovic, John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, C9, C92, E, E4, E41
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43