Canadians’ access to cash in 2023 Staff Analytical Note 2025-13 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao, Daneal O’Habib, Stephen Wild This study updates our measure of Canadians' access to cash through automated banking machines and financial institution branches. We find that in 2023 overall access to cash remains stable, while rural Canadians continue having less access. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51
Search-for-Yield in Canadian Fixed-Income Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2014-3 Sermin Gungor, Jesus Sierra This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the risk-taking behavior of fixed-income mutual funds in Canada. We consider different measures of the stance of monetary policy and investigate active variation in mutual funds’ risk exposure in response to monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G23
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
Has the Inclusion of Forward-Looking Statements in Monetary Policy Communications Made the Bank of Canada More Transparent? Staff Discussion Paper 2010-15 Christine Fay, Toni Gravelle To investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically – over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 – the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their reaction to the recent inclusion of forward-looking policy-rate guidance in these communications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71
Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne Staff Working Paper 1998-21 René Lalonde, Jennifer Page, Pierre St-Amant This study introduces a new method for identifying the output gap, based on the estimation of multivariate autoregression (VAR) models. This approach, which involves using restrictions to identify structural shocks that have only a transitory effect on output but that affect the trend inflation rate, is compared with the decomposition method proposed by Blanchard and […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
House Prices, Consumption and the Role of Non-Mortgage Debt Staff Working Paper 2013-2 Katya Kartashova, Ben Tomlin This paper examines the relationship between house prices and consumption, through the use of debt. Using unique Canadian household-level data that reports the uses of debt, we begin by looking at the relationship between house prices and debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): D, D1, D10, D14, D3, D31, E, E2, E21
Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F33, F4, F41
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2018-18 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes, Lawrence L. Schembri In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-16 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, F, F3