April 18, 2017 Blame It on the Machines? Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses how automation could affect productivity and the Bank’s monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Fintech, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries Staff working paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F3, F4, Q, Q3, Q33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Household balance sheets and mortgage payment shocks Staff analytical note 2025-23 Thomas Michael Pugh, Saarah Sheikh, Taylor Webley Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Bank Runs, Portfolio Choice, and Liquidity Provision Staff working paper 2019-37 Toni Ahnert, Mahmoud Elamin After the financial crisis of 2007–09, many jurisdictions introduced new banking regulations to make banks more resilient and less likely to fail. These regulations included tighter limits for the quality and quantity of bank capital and introduced minimum standards for liquidity. But what was the impact of these changes? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts Staff working paper 2018-52 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E1, E17, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
October 3, 2023 Understanding the unusual: How firms set prices during periods of high inflation Remarks Nicolas Vincent Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses how firms set their prices and how pricing behaviour changed in our recent environment of high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
September 13, 2006 Weathering Economic Shocks: The Importance of Flexibility Remarks Paul Jenkins Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia First, I should explain what I mean by flexibility. As most of you are surely aware, the Bank of Canada has been openly discussing the importance of promoting policies that support economic efficiency, including financial system efficiency. Efficiency refers to the allocation of scarce economic resources to the most productive uses, in a cost-effective way. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving? Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff discussion paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Cyber Risk and Security Investment Staff working paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech