What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24, O, O1, O14
June 21, 2009 Procyclicality and Bank Capital Financial System Review - June 2009 Neville Arjani Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China Staff Working Paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62
The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market Staff Working Paper 2011-28 Christiane Baumeister, Gert Peersman There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short-run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32
Do Exchange Rates Affect the Capital-Labour Ratio? Panel Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2005-12 Danny Leung, Terence Yuen Using industry-level data for Canadian manufacturing industries from 1981 to 1997, the authors find empirical evidence of a negative relationship between the capital-labour ratio and the user cost of capital relative to the price of labour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F4
The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G11
Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2017-24 Matthieu Verstraete, Lena Suchanek This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E4, E44, E5, E52
Housing and Tax-Deferred Retirement Accounts Staff Working Paper 2016-24 Anson T. Y. Ho, Jie Zhou Assets in tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDA) and housing are two major components of household portfolios. In this paper, we develop a life-cycle model to examine the interaction between households’ use of TDA and their housing decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, D, D1, D14, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, H, H2, H24, R, R2, R21
Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5