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3046 Results

Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-1 Lise Pichette, Pierre St-Amant, Ben Tomlin, Karine Anoma
Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable.

Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song
We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment

Staff Working Paper 2018-6 Xiaoqing Zhou
The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E2, E3

Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey

Staff Working Paper 2017-24 Matthieu Verstraete, Lena Suchanek
This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E4, E44, E5, E52

A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market

Staff Working Paper 2013-23 Ron Alquist, Justin-Damien Guénette
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.

Speculators, Prices and Market Volatility

Staff Working Paper 2015-42 Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Buyuksahin, Jeffrey H. Harris
We analyze data from 2005 through 2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to assess how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. Examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets.
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