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3045 Results

Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China

Staff Working Paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong
This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default.

The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target

Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima
In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi
COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations.

Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song
We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey

Staff Working Paper 2017-24 Matthieu Verstraete, Lena Suchanek
This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E4, E44, E5, E52

Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment

We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.

Canadian Bitcoin Ownership in 2023: Key Takeaways

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-4 Daniela Balutel, Marie-Hélène Felt, Doina Rusu
The Bitcoin Omnibus Survey is an important tool for monitoring Canadians’ awareness and ownership of bitcoin and other cryptoassets over time. In this paper, we present data highlights from the 2023 survey.
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