An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech Staff working paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D6, D63, G, G4, G41, L, L1, L11, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving? Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
Public vs. Private Payment Platforms: Market Impacts and Optimal Policy Staff working paper 2026-10 Youming Liu, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Edona Reshidi We study the competition between a welfare-maximizing public payment platform (e.g., CBDC or fast payment system) and a profit-maximizing private platform in a two-sided market, deriving optimal public pricing and showing how network effects, fragmentation, and policy mandates like zero fees or cost recovery shape welfare, usage, and fee incidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Cyber Risk and Security Investment Staff working paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System Staff discussion paper 2022-3 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang We study the impact of the Bank of Canada’s choice of settlement mechanism in Lynx on participant behaviors, liquidity usage, payment delays and the overall operational efficiency of the new system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Funds management, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff working paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff discussion paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity