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This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”

This paper proposes a unique approach to simulate intraday transactions in the Canadian retail payments batch system when such transactions are unobtainable. The simulation procedure has potential for helping with data-deficient problems where only high-level aggregate information is available.

We find the top 10% of the income distribution accounts for three-quarters of the gap in GDP per adult between Canada and the United States. The large gaps in income for high-income earners help distinguish between alternative explanations of this persistent gap in GDP per adult.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers looks at the mortgage market in Canada—past, present and future.

We develop a model in which a financial intermediary’s investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance and characterize the policy tools that implement efficient risk taking.

We investigate the unintended consequences of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). Originally designed to help borrowers refinance after the 2008–09 global financial crisis, HARP inadvertently strengthened the market power of incumbent lenders by creating a cost advantage for them. Despite a 2013 policy rectifying this cost advantage, we still find significant welfare losses for borrowers.

Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors.

We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences.

In 2023, the share of Canadian banks’ foreign assets and liabilities amounted to around 50%. While Canadian banks engage domestically mostly with households and non-financial corporations, their most common counterparties abroad are non-bank financial institutions.