Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff working paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Funds management, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Cyber Risk and Security Investment Staff working paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy: Implications for Canada Staff working paper 2017-34 Ricardo Correa, Teodora Paligorova, Horacio Sapriza, Andrei Zlate Using the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics data on bilateral bank claims from 1995 to 2014, we analyze the impact of monetary policy on cross-border bank flows. We find that monetary policy in a source country is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F36, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media Staff working paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Payment Coordination and Liquidity Efficiency in the New Canadian Wholesale Payments System Staff discussion paper 2022-3 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang We study the impact of the Bank of Canada’s choice of settlement mechanism in Lynx on participant behaviors, liquidity usage, payment delays and the overall operational efficiency of the new system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions Staff analytical note 2016-5 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt, Robin Scott This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving? Staff working paper 2021-56 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
Adverse Selection with Heterogeneously Informed Agents Staff working paper 2018-7 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D8, D82, D83, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework