Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff working paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning Staff working paper 2023-53 Stéphanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, L, L2, L25 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
February 7, 2014 Flexible Inflation Targeting and “Good” and “Bad” Disinflation Remarks Tiff Macklem John Molson School of Business Concordia University Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses flexible inflation targeting and “good” and “bad” disinflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework Staff discussion paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System Staff working paper 2023-26 Rodney J. Garratt, Zhentong Lu, Phoebe Tian We show how participants in Canada’s new high-value payment system save liquidity by exploiting the new gridlock resolution arrangement. The findings have important implications for the design of these systems and shed light on financial institutions’ liquidity preference. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff working paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Usage of Security Lending Facilities under Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sweden Staff working paper 2026-9 Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Fabienne Schneider, David Vestin This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions shift the SLF from a backstop to a first-resort tool. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Is a Cashless Society Problematic? Staff discussion paper 2018-12 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Scott Hendry The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
February 21, 2025 Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy Remarks Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the potential impact of a trade conflict with the United States. He also launches the review of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework