Educational Spillovers: Does One Size Fit All? Staff Working Paper 2005-10 Robert Baumann, Raphael Solomon In a search model of production, where agents accumulate heterogeneous amounts of human capital, an individual worker's wage depends on average human capital in the searching population. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): I, I2, I29, J, J2, J24, J3, J31
A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market Staff Working Paper 2013-23 Ron Alquist, Justin-Damien Guénette We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43, Q47
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55
November 16, 2017 An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-21 Shutao Cao, Enchuan Shao, Pedro Silos This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): H, H2, H29, J, J2, J23, J3, J38
The Geography of Pandemic Containment Staff Working Paper 2021-26 Elisa Giannone, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang Interconnectedness between US states has affected the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We study the optimal containment policies regulating the movement of goods and people within and between states. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, H, H0, I, I1, R, R1
April 24, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Cover page Moroccan Coin Moulds This bronze mould from Morocco is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43