November 19, 2019 Researching the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Miguel Molico The Bank of Canada has a mandate to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” primarily through the conduct of monetary policy and promotion of a safe, sound and efficient financial system. Understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore a priority for the Bank. Content Type(s): Staff research, Other Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
October 8, 2009 Central Banking in Canada: Meeting Today's and Tomorrow's Challenges Remarks Paul Jenkins Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Indeed, the global financial crisis of the past two years has presented unique, stressful challenges that have forced us all to assess what has worked well and what needs to change. Today, I would like to review some of the critical thinking around these issues, primarily from the perspective of our work at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework Staff discussion paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Crowdfunding and Risk Staff working paper 2023-28 David Cimon Crowdfunding may enable unique products to reach the consumer market. I model a crowdfunding technology that publicly screens consumer demand early in the production process. In this model, entrepreneurs like crowdfunding for risky projects where demand is uncertain, but not for large, safe projects or for projects where production costs are uncertain. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021 Staff analytical note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth Staff working paper 2023-34 Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G5, G51, R, R1, R12, R13, R2, R3, R31, R5, R52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 7, 2018 Establishing a Resolution Regime for Canada’s Financial Market Infrastructures Financial System Review - June 2018 Elizabeth Woodman, Lucia Chung, Nikil Chande This report highlights how an effective resolution regime promotes financial stability. It does this by ensuring that financial market infrastructures (FMIs) would be able to continue to provide their critical functions during a period of stress when an FMI’s own recovery measures were failing. The report explains the Bank of Canada’s new role as the resolution authority for FMIs, which will further bolster financial system resilience. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G19, G2, G20, G28, G29
Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff working paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
February 7, 2014 Flexible Inflation Targeting and “Good” and “Bad” Disinflation Remarks Tiff Macklem John Molson School of Business Concordia University Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses flexible inflation targeting and “good” and “bad” disinflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks