February 7, 2014 Flexible Inflation Targeting and “Good” and “Bad” Disinflation Remarks Tiff Macklem John Molson School of Business Concordia University Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses flexible inflation targeting and “good” and “bad” disinflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness Staff analytical note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 19, 2019 Researching the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Miguel Molico The Bank of Canada has a mandate to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” primarily through the conduct of monetary policy and promotion of a safe, sound and efficient financial system. Understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore a priority for the Bank. Content Type(s): Staff research, Other Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
November 22, 2003 Recent Labour Market Developments in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2003 Richard Dion, Bill Laur In the year and a half leading up to mid-2003, both employment and labour force participation increased at an unusually rapid pace compared to domestic economic activity. Gains in employment were unusually large, relative to output growth, compared to gains in total hours worked. This is explained by a faster rate of increase in the participation rate of the 55 and older age group, many of whom opted for part-time employment. This shift in the composition of employment contributed to a reduction in the length of the average workweek in 2002. As a result, labour input progressed at a rate that was markedly slower than for employment and more in line with its historical relationship to output growth. The authors anticipate that the 55 and older age group will continue to participate strongly in the labour force, but that as the economy rebounds and uncertainty diminishes, the cyclical component in the growth of part-time work should diminish and that of full-time employment increase. Employment growth should moderate in relation to output growth and there may be a cyclical rebound in labour productivity as total hours worked increases during the initial recovery in output growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours Staff working paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, L, L1, L13, L8, L85 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models Staff working paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
June 2, 2022 Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework Staff discussion paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting