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2099 Results

Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?

Staff working paper 2019-11 Klaus Adam, Dmitry Matveev, Stefan Nagel
Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence.

Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets

Staff working paper 2025-33 Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang
We construct a dataset on Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada non-rate announcement events to provide novel insights into how foreign and domestic monetary policy communications affect the financial markets of open economies. We find that Fed non-rate communications have a stronger impact on long-term interest rates and stock futures, while Bank of Canada communications are relatively more important for short-term interest rates and the exchange rate.

A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil

Staff working paper 2016-18 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian
Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about price expectations. Exploiting this information has proved difficult in practice, because time-varying risk premia often render the futures price a poor measure of the market expectation of the price of the underlying asset.

Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.
September 6, 2018

An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan
Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference

Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak
We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.

An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech

Staff working paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo
We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D6, D63, G, G4, G41, L, L1, L11, L2, L20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2023-53 Stéphanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.

How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System

Staff working paper 2023-26 Rodney J. Garratt, Zhentong Lu, Phoebe Tian
We show how participants in Canada’s new high-value payment system save liquidity by exploiting the new gridlock resolution arrangement. The findings have important implications for the design of these systems and shed light on financial institutions’ liquidity preference.

Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

Staff working paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark
We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk.
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