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2133 Results

Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours

Staff working paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie
This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions.

An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework

Staff discussion paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates.

Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency

Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.
June 2, 2022

Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment

Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched.

The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada

Staff working paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country.

The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade

Staff working paper 2025-11 Lu Han
Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks.

Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information.
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