Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals Staff working paper 2017-22 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning Staff working paper 2021-7 Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney J. Garratt, Francisco Rivadeneyra We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity Staff discussion paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning Staff working paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C6, C65, C8, C81, E, E4, E42, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours Staff working paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, L, L1, L13, L8, L85 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games Staff working paper 2023-58 Erhao Xie This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency Staff discussion paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C58, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models Staff working paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models