Household balance sheets and mortgage payment shocks Staff analytical note 2025-23 Thomas Michael Pugh, Saarah Sheikh, Taylor Webley Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
December 15, 2016 Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach Financial System Review - December 2016 Bo Young Chang, Gitanjali Kumar, André Usche, Michael Januska In Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach, Bo Young Chang, Michael Januska, Gitanjali Kumar and André Usche discuss how lending that occurs outside the traditional banking system provides benefits to the economy but must be monitored carefully for potential financial sector vulnerabilities. They describe how the Bank defines and measures shadow banking and how it assesses vulnerabilities in the sector, using an approach that examines both markets and entities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff working paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff working paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
November 8, 2016 Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S. Staff working paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Is a Cashless Society Problematic? Staff discussion paper 2018-12 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Scott Hendry The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
The Usage of Security Lending Facilities under Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sweden Staff working paper 2026-9 Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Fabienne Schneider, David Vestin This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions shift the SLF from a backstop to a first-resort tool. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update Staff analytical paper 2026-21 Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov, Hannes Twieling We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
October 8, 2009 Central Banking in Canada: Meeting Today's and Tomorrow's Challenges Remarks Paul Jenkins Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Indeed, the global financial crisis of the past two years has presented unique, stressful challenges that have forced us all to assess what has worked well and what needs to change. Today, I would like to review some of the critical thinking around these issues, primarily from the perspective of our work at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks