Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021 Staff analytical note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World Staff discussion paper 2016-6 Mark Kruger, Robert Lavigne, Julie McKay The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
June 7, 2018 Establishing a Resolution Regime for Canada’s Financial Market Infrastructures Financial System Review - June 2018 Elizabeth Woodman, Lucia Chung, Nikil Chande This report highlights how an effective resolution regime promotes financial stability. It does this by ensuring that financial market infrastructures (FMIs) would be able to continue to provide their critical functions during a period of stress when an FMI’s own recovery measures were failing. The report explains the Bank of Canada’s new role as the resolution authority for FMIs, which will further bolster financial system resilience. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G19, G2, G20, G28, G29
June 2, 2022 Economic progress report: Navigating a high inflation environment Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry Gatineau Chamber of Commerce Gatineau, Quebec Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff working paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada Staff working paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models Staff working paper 2021-11 Youngsoo Jang, Soyoung Lee Models with default options are hard to solve. We propose an extension of the endogenous grid method that solves default risk models more efficiently and accurately. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
February 4, 2010 The Coming Thaw Remarks Mark Carney Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba It is a pleasure to be here in Winnipeg. Today, I intend to elaborate on elements of the Bank of Canada's economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments? Staff working paper 2019-11 Klaus Adam, Dmitry Matveev, Stefan Nagel Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the literature on asset pricing are consistent with the survey evidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models