Household balance sheets and mortgage payment shocks Staff analytical note 2025-23 Thomas Michael Pugh, Saarah Sheikh, Taylor Webley Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff working paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Usage of Security Lending Facilities under Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sweden Staff working paper 2026-9 Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Fabienne Schneider, David Vestin This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions shift the SLF from a backstop to a first-resort tool. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
February 5, 2026 Structural change—Canada at a crossroads Remarks Tiff Macklem Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how structural change—driven by U.S. protectionism, AI, and slowing population growth—is reshaping Canada’s economy. He outlines the Bank’s role in maintaining low and stable inflation while helping the economy through the transition. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
Is a Cashless Society Problematic? Staff discussion paper 2018-12 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Scott Hendry The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Monetary Policy Tradeoffs Between Financial Stability and Price Stability Staff working paper 2016-49 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt We analyze the impact of interest rate policy on financial stability in an environment where banks can experience runs on their short-term liabilities, forcing them to sell assets at fire-sale prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness Staff analytical note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Central Bank Responses in TANK Staff working paper 2025-21 Lilia Maliar, Chris Naubert We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C62, C63, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
November 8, 2016 Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting