Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Climate change, Digitalization, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54
December 20, 2010 Strengthening the Infrastructure of Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets Financial System Review - December 2010 Carolyn A. Wilkins, Elizabeth Woodman Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Climate Variability and International Trade Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54
Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Staff Working Paper 2008-10 Miroslav Misina, Greg Tkacz Historical narratives typically associate financial crises with credit expansions and asset price misalignments. The question is whether some combination of measures of credit and asset prices can be used to predict these events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G1, G10
A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market Staff Working Paper 2013-23 Ron Alquist, Justin-Damien Guénette We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43, Q47
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities Staff Working Paper 2018-4 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F4, F44, Q, Q1, Q11, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43
April 16, 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Cover page Depression Scrip The examples of Depression scrip illustrated here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 16, 2012 Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach Staff Working Paper 2007-53 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Enrique Sentana Nowadays researchers can choose the sampling frequency of exchange rates and interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-21 Shutao Cao, Enchuan Shao, Pedro Silos This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): H, H2, H29, J, J2, J23, J3, J38