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2120 Results

Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Central Bank Responses in TANK

Staff working paper 2025-21 Lilia Maliar, Chris Naubert
We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission.

Channels of Transmission: How Mortgage Rates Affect House Prices and Rents in Canada

Staff analytical paper 2026-2 Nishaad Rao, Tao Wang
We use Canadian data to examine how monetary policy affects house prices and the consumer price index for rent through exogenous changes in the mortgage interest rates. It finds that the price and rent impacts operate through various channels and that these impacts vary by region.

Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.

The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade

Staff working paper 2025-11 Lu Han
Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks.

Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference

Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak
We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.

Limits to Arbitrage and Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity

Staff discussion paper 2016-4 James Pinnington, Maral Shamloo
We document an increase in deviations from short-term covered interest rate parity (CIP) in the first half of 2015. Since the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to abandon its minimum exchange rate policy, both the magnitude and volatility of deviations from CIP have increased across several currency pairs. The effect is particularly pronounced for pairs involving the Swiss franc.

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff working paper 2023-53 Stéphanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.

Inference in Games Without Nash Equilibrium: An Application to Restaurants’ Competition in Opening Hours

Staff working paper 2018-60 Erhao Xie
This paper relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) assumption commonly imposed in empirical discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming that players have unbiased/correct expectations, my model treats a player’s belief about the behavior of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions.

How Banks Create Gridlock to Save Liquidity in Canada's Large Value Payment System

Staff working paper 2023-26 Rodney J. Garratt, Zhentong Lu, Phoebe Tian
We show how participants in Canada’s new high-value payment system save liquidity by exploiting the new gridlock resolution arrangement. The findings have important implications for the design of these systems and shed light on financial institutions’ liquidity preference.
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