Household balance sheets and mortgage payment shocks Staff analytical note 2025-23 Thomas Michael Pugh, Saarah Sheikh, Taylor Webley Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C5, C51, C53 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy Tradeoffs Between Financial Stability and Price Stability Staff working paper 2016-49 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt We analyze the impact of interest rate policy on financial stability in an environment where banks can experience runs on their short-term liabilities, forcing them to sell assets at fire-sale prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Usage of Security Lending Facilities under Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sweden Staff working paper 2026-9 Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Fabienne Schneider, David Vestin This paper examines the interaction between quantitative easing (QE) and the securities lending facility (SLF) using a detailed dataset on Riksbank QE purchases, Swedish DMO SLF transactions and OTC repo deals. A theoretical model further shows how excess demand for assets and search frictions shift the SLF from a backstop to a first-resort tool. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Is a Cashless Society Problematic? Staff discussion paper 2018-12 Walter Engert, Ben Fung, Scott Hendry The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
November 8, 2016 Wood, Wheat, Wheels and the Web: Historical Pivots and Future Prospects for Canadian Exports Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the historical evolution and future prospects for Canadian exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? Staff working paper 2017-35 Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger, Lutz Kilian It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): Q, Q1, Q18, Q2, Q28, Q4, Q42, Q5, Q58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Monetary Policy Transmission with Endogenous Central Bank Responses in TANK Staff working paper 2025-21 Lilia Maliar, Chris Naubert We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C62, C63, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
June 7, 2018 Establishing a Resolution Regime for Canada’s Financial Market Infrastructures Financial System Review - June 2018 Elizabeth Woodman, Lucia Chung, Nikil Chande This report highlights how an effective resolution regime promotes financial stability. It does this by ensuring that financial market infrastructures (FMIs) would be able to continue to provide their critical functions during a period of stress when an FMI’s own recovery measures were failing. The report explains the Bank of Canada’s new role as the resolution authority for FMIs, which will further bolster financial system resilience. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G19, G2, G20, G28, G29
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021 Staff analytical note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply