Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55
Central Bank Liquidity Policy in Modern Times Staff Discussion Paper 2024-6 Skylar Brooks Across several dimensions of lender of last resort policy, I highlight broad changes that have occurred since the 2008–09 global financial crisis and discuss some of the key challenges, choices and considerations facing the designers of central bank liquidity tools today. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12
Bank Leverage Regulation and Macroeconomic Dynamics Staff Working Paper 2011-32 Ian Christensen, Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran This paper assesses the merits of countercyclical bank balance sheet regulation for the stabilization of financial and economic cycles and examines its interaction with monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
Has the Inclusion of Forward-Looking Statements in Monetary Policy Communications Made the Bank of Canada More Transparent? Staff Discussion Paper 2010-15 Christine Fay, Toni Gravelle To investigate the extent to which the transparency of the Bank of Canada's monetary policy has improved, the authors examine empirically – over the period 30 October 2000 to 31 May 2007 – the reaction of Canadian financial markets to official Bank communications, and in particular their reaction to the recent inclusion of forward-looking policy-rate guidance in these communications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24, O, O1, O14
Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads Staff Working Paper 2012-27 Hui Chen, Yu Xu, Jun Yang We build a dynamic capital structure model to study the link between systematic risk exposure and debt maturity, as well as their joint impact on the term structure of credit spreads. Our model allows for time variation and lumpiness in the maturity structure. Relative to short-term debt, long-term debt is less prone to rollover risks, but its illiquidity raises the costs of financing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, G33
Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation Staff Working Paper 2016-13 Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Rosborough Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F34
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff Analytical Note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
Buying Back Government Bonds: Mechanics and Other Considerations Staff Working Paper 1998-9 Toni Gravelle With the elimination of the federal deficit, the Bank of Canada, the Department of Finance, and financial market participants are examining ways to manage the reduction in the stock of marketable debt. This paper summarizes three different methods—reverse auction, over-the-counter purchases, and conversions—that could be used to buy back Government of Canada bonds before they […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1