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2094 Results

Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States

Staff working paper 2019-12 David Albouy, Alex Chernoff, Chandler Lutz, Casey Warman
We examine local labor markets in the United States and Canada from 1990 to 2011 using comparable household and business data. Wage levels and inequality rise with city population in both countries, albeit less in Canada.

Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games

Staff working paper 2023-58 Erhao Xie
This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart.

State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models

Staff working paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.

Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory

Staff working paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales
Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level.

The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World

Staff discussion paper 2016-6 Mark Kruger, Robert Lavigne, Julie McKay
The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure.

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

Staff working paper 2024-31 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it.

Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol?

Staff working paper 2017-35 Christiane Baumeister, Reinhard Ellwanger, Lutz Kilian
It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view.

Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model

Staff analytical note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter
We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.

On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).

Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model

Staff working paper 2025-22 Kim Huynh, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel
We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale.
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