Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2025-14 Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Mark Kim, Temel Taskin We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51
Cash Management and Payment Choices: A Simulation Model with International Comparisons Staff Working Paper 2013-53 Carlos Arango, Yassine Bouhdaoui, David Bounie, Martina Eschelbach, Lola Hernández Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper develops a simulation model to test whether standard implications of the theory on cash management and payment choices can explain the use of payment instruments by transaction size. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, E, E4, E41, E47
Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada? Staff Working Paper 2002-4 Jean Farès The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real? Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43
June 15, 2011 Housing in Canada Remarks Mark Carney Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia In a speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade, Governor Mark Carney discusses the fundamentals of the Canadian residential real estate market, the international context, and the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Fixed-Term and Permanent Employment Contracts: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-21 Shutao Cao, Enchuan Shao, Pedro Silos This paper constructs a theory of the coexistence of fixed-term and permanent employment contracts in an environment with ex-ante identical workers and employers. Workers under fixed-term contracts can be dismissed at no cost while permanent employees enjoy labor protection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): H, H2, H29, J, J2, J23, J3, J38
Price Negotiation in Differentiated Products Markets: Evidence from the Canadian Mortgage Market Staff Working Paper 2012-30 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde This paper measures market power in a decentralized market where contracts are determined through a search and negotiation process. The mortgage industry has many institutional features which suggest competitiveness: homogeneous contracts, negotiable rates, and, for a given consumer, common lending costs across lenders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2, L22
The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable Staff Working Paper 2019-13 Dany Brouillette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Pierre St-Amant, Bassirou Gueye, Elise Nelson In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E2, E24, E27
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature Staff Analytical Note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33