An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework Staff discussion paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Private Digital Cryptoassets as Investment? Bitcoin Ownership and Use in Canada, 2016-2021 Staff working paper 2022-44 Daniela Balutel, Walter Engert, Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Marcel Voia We report on the dynamics of Bitcoin awareness and ownership from 2016 to 2021, using the Bank of Canada's Bitcoin Omnibus Surveys (BTCOS). Our analysis also helps understand Bitcoin owners who adopted during the COVID-19 and how they differ from long-term owners. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel Staff working paper 2020-12 Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning Staff working paper 2022-29 Vladimir Skavysh, Sofia Priazhkina, Diego Guala, Thomas Bromley Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C6, C61, C63, C68, C7, E, E1, E13, G, G1, G17, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
August 15, 2013 Big Data Analysis: The Next Frontier Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Nii Ayi Armah The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada relies on the analysis of a broad set of economic information. Greater availability of immediate and detailed information would improve real-time economic decision making. Technological advances have provided an opportunity to exploit “big data” - the vast amount of digital data from business transactions, social media and networked computers. Big data can be a complement to traditional information sources, offering fresh insight for the monitoring of economic activity and inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C6, C63, C8, C80
February 7, 2014 Flexible Inflation Targeting and “Good” and “Bad” Disinflation Remarks Tiff Macklem John Molson School of Business Concordia University Montréal, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses flexible inflation targeting and “good” and “bad” disinflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations? Staff working paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E65 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Mutable Geography of Firms’ International Trade Staff working paper 2025-11 Lu Han Exporters frequently change their market destinations. This paper introduces a new approach to identifying the drivers of these decisions over time. Analysis of customs data from China and the UK shows most changes are driven by demand rather than supply-related shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff working paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness Staff analytical note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply