October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
June 23, 2005 On the Evolution of the Financial Safety Net Financial System Review - June 2005 Walter Engert Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
December 15, 2016 Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach Financial System Review - December 2016 Bo Young Chang, Gitanjali Kumar, André Usche, Michael Januska In Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach, Bo Young Chang, Michael Januska, Gitanjali Kumar and André Usche discuss how lending that occurs outside the traditional banking system provides benefits to the economy but must be monitored carefully for potential financial sector vulnerabilities. They describe how the Bank defines and measures shadow banking and how it assesses vulnerabilities in the sector, using an approach that examines both markets and entities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Responses to Natural Disasters Staff working paper 2026-28 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Ueberfeldt, Malik Shukayev Natural disasters can create important challenges for monetary policy in resource-rich small open economies. Using a DSGE model calibrated to Canada, we show that most disasters operate as adverse supply shocks, lowering output and raising inflation, thereby creating a trade-off for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, E, E5, E52, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
May 16, 2016 Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang Recently, the Bank of Canada has estimated the effective lower bound (ELB) on its policy interest rate to be about -50 basis points. This article outlines the analysis that underpins that estimate by quantifying the costs of storing and using cash in Canada. It also explores how some international markets have adapted to negative interest rates, issues surrounding their implementation, as well as their transmission to other interest rates in the economy. Finally, it discusses theoretical ideas on how the ELB could be reduced further. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown Staff working paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading? Staff analytical note 2017-11 Daniel Hyun, Jesse Johal, Corey Garriott Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff working paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
December 21, 2007 Financial System Review - December 2007 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report