December 21, 2007 Financial System Review - December 2007 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States Staff working paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 23, 2005 On the Evolution of the Financial Safety Net Financial System Review - June 2005 Walter Engert Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff working paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff working paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
What Do Survey Data Tell Us About US Businesses? Staff working paper 2019-45 Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan, Kurt See This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E2, E22, H, H2, H25 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Do Canadian Broker-Dealers Act as Agents or Principals in Bond Trading? Staff analytical note 2017-11 Daniel Hyun, Jesse Johal, Corey Garriott Technology, risk tolerance and regulation may influence dealers to reduce their trading as principals (using their own balance sheets for sales and purchases of securities) in favour of agency trading (matching client trades). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
May 16, 2016 Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 Jonathan Witmer, Jing Yang Recently, the Bank of Canada has estimated the effective lower bound (ELB) on its policy interest rate to be about -50 basis points. This article outlines the analysis that underpins that estimate by quantifying the costs of storing and using cash in Canada. It also explores how some international markets have adapted to negative interest rates, issues surrounding their implementation, as well as their transmission to other interest rates in the economy. Finally, it discusses theoretical ideas on how the ELB could be reduced further. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58