Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge Staff working paper 2024-31 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E31, L, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market Staff working paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff working paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
October 6, 2016 Economic Trends and Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Trois-Rivières, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins talks about the major trends of the Canadian economy and how they affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
CBDC: Banking and Anonymity Staff working paper 2024-9 Yuteng Cheng, Ryuichiro Izumi We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff working paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 28, 2017 Financial System Review - November 2017 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that the high level of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities are still elevated, improving economic conditions and recent changes to housing policy should support an easing of these vulnerabilities over time. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats and the interconnectedness of the financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada Staff analytical note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E44, E5, G, G1, G10, G17, G2, G21, G3, G32, O Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting