The Impact of Bankruptcy Reform on Insolvency Choice and Consumer Credit Staff working paper 2016-26 Jason Allen, Kiana Basiri We examine the impact of the 2009 amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act on insolvency decisions. Rule changes steered debtors out of division I proposals and into the more cost-effective division II proposals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, K, K3, K35 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff working paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets Staff working paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E4, E44, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff working paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models Staff working paper 2020-38 Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujič, Sofia Maier What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, I, I2, J, J2 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 23, 2005 On the Evolution of the Financial Safety Net Financial System Review - June 2005 Walter Engert Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation Staff analytical note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures