Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Climate Variability and International Trade Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54
Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada? Staff Working Paper 2002-4 Jean Farès The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31
What COVID-19 May Leave Behind: Technology-Related Job Postings in Canada Staff Working Paper 2022-17 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi COVID-19 affects technology adoption: online job postings for technology-related occupations fall less during pandemic lockdowns and pick up faster during reopenings than postings for more traditional occupations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J2, J23, J24, O, O1, O14
June 23, 2004 The Organizational Structure of Financial Market Regulation: Highlights from the Literature Financial System Review - June 2004 Christine Fay, Nicolas Parent Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Human Capital Risk and the Firmsize Wage Premium Staff Working Paper 2008-33 Danny Leung, Alexander Ueberfeldt Why do employed persons in large firms earn more than employed persons in small firms, even after controlling for observable characteristics? Complementary to previous results, this paper proposes a mechanism that gives an answer to this question. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, J24, J3, J31
Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices? Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52
June 15, 2011 Housing in Canada Remarks Mark Carney Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia In a speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade, Governor Mark Carney discusses the fundamentals of the Canadian residential real estate market, the international context, and the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51