Non-competing Data Intermediaries Staff Working Paper 2020-28 Shota Ichihashi I study a model of competing data intermediaries (e.g., online platforms and data brokers) that collect personal data from consumers and sell it to downstream firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D4, D42, D43, D8, D80, L, L1, L12
Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
On the Fragility of DeFi Lending Staff Working Paper 2023-14 Jonathan Chiu, Emre Ozdenoren, Kathy Yuan, Shengxing Zhang We develop a dynamic model to capture key features of decentralized finance lending. We identify a price-liquidity feedback: the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about lending activities in future periods, with higher future price expectations leading to more lending and higher prices in that period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10
Net Send Limits in the Lynx Payment System: Usage and Implications Staff Discussion Paper 2025-13 Virgilio B Pasin, Anna Wyllie We study how participants in the Lynx payment system use the net send limit (NSL) tool to control their intraday payment outflow levels. Our results show that participants typically adopt a “set it and forget it” approach to scheduling NSLs and sometimes have distinct intraday NSL adjustment behaviours. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, D, D8, D82, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G4, G41
Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-4 Christopher Chung, Bryan Campbell, Scott Hendry In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, G14
November 15, 2017 Embracing Uncertainty in the Conduct of Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Money Marketeers of New York University New York, New York Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains how uncertainty is factored into monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission
The Power of Many: Assessing the Economic Impact of the Global Fiscal Stimulus Staff Discussion Paper 2010-1 Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden The Bank of Canada Global Economy Model (BoC-GEM) is used to examine the effect of various types of discretionary fiscal policies on different regions of the globe. The BoC-GEM is a microfounded dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium global model with six regions, multiple sectors, and international linkages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63, F, F4, F42
Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System Staff Discussion Paper 2009-13 Lana Embree, Tom Roberts Analysis of the characteristics and structure of a network of financial institutions can provide insight into the complex relationships and interdependencies that exist in a payment, clearing, and settlement system (PCSS), and allow an intuitive understanding of the PCSS's efficiency, stability, and resiliency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D8, D85, G, G1, G10
Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52