What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19? Staff Analytical Note 2021-3 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ryan Shotlander The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Cross-Country Evidence Staff Working Paper 2015-41 Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess, Rose Cunningham Central banks may face challenges in achieving their price stability goals when financial stability risks are present. There is, however, considerable heterogeneity among central banks with respect to how they manage these potential trade-offs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, G, G0, G01
February 17, 2011 Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 Jason Allen This article begins with a brief examination of the Canadian mortgage market, focusing on the market’s evolution following changes to the Bank Act in 1992, which allowed chartered banks to enter the trust business, and the subsequent entrance of virtual banks and mortgage brokers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission
Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada? Staff Working Paper 2002-4 Jean Farès The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31
Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Efficiency and Economies of Scale of Large Canadian Banks Staff Working Paper 2005-13 Jason Allen, Ying Liu The authors measure the economies of scale of Canada's six largest banks and their costefficiency over time. Using a unique panel data set from 1983 to 2003, they estimate pooled translog cost functions and derive measures of relative efficiency and economies of scale. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, G, G2, G21
Optimal Interbank Regulation Staff Working Paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20
Nowcasting Canadian GDP with Density Combinations Staff Discussion Paper 2022-12 Tony Chernis, Taylor Webley We present a tool for creating density nowcasts for Canadian real GDP growth. We demonstrate that the combined densities are a reliable and accurate tool for assessing the state of the economy and risks to the outlook. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E7
Endogenous Trade Participation with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through Staff Working Paper 2013-30 Yuko Imura This paper investigates the implications of endogenous trade participation for international business cycles, trade flow dynamics and exchange rate pass-through when price adjustments are staggered across firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F4, F44
The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations Staff Discussion Paper 2021-13 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang Bank of Canada staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks in the lead-up to 2021 renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. This paper summarizes some interim results of model simulations from their research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58