October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty Staff working paper 2026-12 Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Celine Poilly Recessions feature elevated uncertainty. We develop a nonlinear imperfect-information New Keynesian model where procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty and precautionary saving. This demand channel can overturn the inflationary impact of negative supply shocks, making them deflationary, unless monetary policy stabilizes the output gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, D83, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
December 18, 2006 A Summary of the Bank of Canada Conference on Fixed-Income Markets, 3–4 May 2006 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Gregory Bauer, Scott Hendry The Bank of Canada's interest in fixed-income markets spans several of its functional areas of responsibility, including monetary policy, funds management, and financial system stability and efficiency. For that reason, the 2006 conference brought together top academics and central bankers from around the world to discuss leading-edge work in the field of fixed-income research. The papers and discussions cover such topics as the efficiency of fixed-income markets, price formation, the determinants of the yield curve, and volatility modelling. This article provides a short summary of each conference paper and the ensuing discussion. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 23, 2005 On the Evolution of the Financial Safety Net Financial System Review - June 2005 Walter Engert Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
More Money for Some: The Redistributive Effects of Open Market Operations Staff working paper 2021-46 Christian Bustamante I use a search-theoretic model of money to study how open market operations affect the conduct of monetary policy and what this means for households along the wealth distribution. In the model, households vary in the size and composition of their portfolios, which in turn implies that they may be unevenly affected by open market operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 15, 2016 Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach Financial System Review - December 2016 Bo Young Chang, Gitanjali Kumar, André Usche, Michael Januska In Monitoring Shadow Banking in Canada: A Hybrid Approach, Bo Young Chang, Michael Januska, Gitanjali Kumar and André Usche discuss how lending that occurs outside the traditional banking system provides benefits to the economy but must be monitored carefully for potential financial sector vulnerabilities. They describe how the Bank defines and measures shadow banking and how it assesses vulnerabilities in the sector, using an approach that examines both markets and entities. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G23
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation Staff analytical note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff working paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy Staff analytical note 2024-3 Felipe Alves, Sushant Acharya We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E40, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures