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3045 Results

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

Endogenous Trade Participation with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Staff Working Paper 2013-30 Yuko Imura
This paper investigates the implications of endogenous trade participation for international business cycles, trade flow dynamics and exchange rate pass-through when price adjustments are staggered across firms.
February 17, 2011

Competition in the Canadian Mortgage Market

This article begins with a brief examination of the Canadian mortgage market, focusing on the market’s evolution following changes to the Bank Act in 1992, which allowed chartered banks to enter the trust business, and the subsequent entrance of virtual banks and mortgage brokers.

Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation

Staff Working Paper 2024-13 Joshua Brault
I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E10

Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada?

Staff Working Paper 2002-4 Jean Farès
The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31

Efficiency and Economies of Scale of Large Canadian Banks

Staff Working Paper 2005-13 Jason Allen, Ying Liu
The authors measure the economies of scale of Canada's six largest banks and their costefficiency over time. Using a unique panel data set from 1983 to 2003, they estimate pooled translog cost functions and derive measures of relative efficiency and economies of scale.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, G, G2, G21

Price Discovery in Canadian Government Bond Futures and Spot Markets

Staff Working Paper 2007-4 Christopher Chung, Bryan Campbell, Scott Hendry
In this paper we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices for Canadian Government bonds. We follow the information-share approaches introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Harris et al (1995), applying the techniques in Gonzalo-Granger (1995), to evaluate the relative contributions of trading in the cash and futures markets to the price discovery process.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, G14

Lending Standards, Productivity and Credit Crunches

Staff Working Paper 2019-25 Jonathan Swarbrick
We propose a macroeconomic model in which adverse selection in investment drives the amplification of macroeconomic fluctuations, in line with prominent roles played by the credit crunch and collapse of the asset-backed security market in the financial crisis.
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