Trading on Long-term Information Staff working paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration Staff working paper 2020-24 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu, Gabriel Xerri Consumers, businesses and banks make millions of payments each day using a variety of instruments, such as debit cards, cheques and wires. Canada is currently developing three new systems to process these transactions: Lynx, Settlement Optimization Engine (SOE) and Real-Time Rail (RTR). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff working paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models
Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee Staff working paper 2022-15 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov We construct and estimate a structural two-stage model of equilibrium in a market for payments in order to quantify the network externalities and identify the main determinants of consumer and merchant decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff working paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Cross-Border Bank Flows and Monetary Policy: Implications for Canada Staff working paper 2017-34 Ricardo Correa, Teodora Paligorova, Horacio Sapriza, Andrei Zlate Using the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Locational Banking Statistics data on bilateral bank claims from 1995 to 2014, we analyze the impact of monetary policy on cross-border bank flows. We find that monetary policy in a source country is an important determinant of cross-border bank flows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F36, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media Staff working paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Cash and COVID-19: What happened in 2021 Staff discussion paper 2022-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib, Joy Wu, Julia Zhu Using data from the Bank Note Distribution System and consumer surveys, we find that bank notes in circulation remained high through 2021. Canadians continued to rely on electronic methods of payment, but a significant share also continued using cash for payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
January 5, 2002 Inflation Targeting in Canada: Experience and Lessons Remarks David Dodge Central Bank Governor's Panel on Inflation Targeting at a joint session of The American Economic Association and the North American Economics and Finance Association Atlanta, Georgia In the 1970s and 1980s we found - in common with many other countries - that high and variable rates of inflation created a lot of economic damage. And it took a long time and a lot of work with various monetary policy frameworks before we got back on track. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
November 19, 2015 A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J0