An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements Staff analytical note 2025-27 Josef Schroth Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial system regulation and oversight
Potential output in Canada: 2026 assessment Staff analytical paper 2026-19 Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Gabriella Ruggero, Olena Senyuta, Karanbir Sohal, Walter Steingress, Temel Taskin Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
December 12, 2011 Growth in the Age of Deleveraging Remarks Mark Carney Empire Club of Canada / Canadian Club of Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses the factors driving global deleveraging and the implications for economic growth in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets Staff working paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E4, E44, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff working paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital? Staff working paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, F, F2, F21, F23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade Staff working paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market Staff working paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
April 12, 2006 The Evolution of the Government of Canada's Debt Distribution Framework Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Marc Pellerin This overview includes a brief history highlighting the government's use of the primary and secondary markets to develop a framework for distributing its debt securities to financial market intermediaries and end investors. The framework is also intended to meet the government's debt-strategy objectives of raising stable, low-cost funding and maintaining a well-functioning debt market. Pellerin reviews the government's adoption of a new framework in 1998 as well as the 2005 modifications aimed at attracting continued broad and competitive participation in government auctions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles