Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff working paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
The Impact of Bankruptcy Reform on Insolvency Choice and Consumer Credit Staff working paper 2016-26 Jason Allen, Kiana Basiri We examine the impact of the 2009 amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act on insolvency decisions. Rule changes steered debtors out of division I proposals and into the more cost-effective division II proposals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, K, K3, K35 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States Staff working paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff working paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
The aggregate and heterogeneous effects of responding to shelter inflation Staff analytical paper 2026-5 Michael Irwin, Matías Vieyra This note examines how monetary policy responses to shelter inflation affect both the overall economy and different households. We find that the aggregate macroeconomic effects of responding to shelter inflation are modest, whereas the redistributive consequences across households are substantially larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5, G, G5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans Staff working paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, G, G5, H, H3 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
October 1, 2013 Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports Remarks Tiff Macklem Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses global growth and the prospects for Canada’s exports. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation Staff analytical note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures