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2160 Results

Competing Currencies in the Laboratory

Staff working paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang
We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection.

Potential output in Canada: 2026 assessment

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon.

Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

Staff analytical note 2025-18 Alexander Lam
US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

Global Factors and Inflation in Canada

Staff analytical note 2017-17 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot
This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate.

Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks

Staff working paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu
We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets.

Trading on Long-term Information

Staff working paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan
Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading.

The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada

Staff analytical note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive
A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding.

Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Staff working paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
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