Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff working paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
December 14, 2009 Financial System Review - December 2009 Conditions in the international financial system have improved considerably since June in response to the forceful actions taken by policy-makers around the world.FSR Highlights - December 2009 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
The Evolution of Unobserved Skill Returns in the U.S.: A New Approach Using Panel Data Staff working paper 2017-61 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park, Youngki Shin Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the United States over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics of skills (especially among older workers) rather than about the stability of skill distributions across cohorts, as is standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, J, J2, J24, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe Staff working paper 2023-50 Raza Ali Kazmi, Cyrus Minwalla An anonymous credential mechanism is a set of protocols that allows users to obtain credentials from an organization and demonstrate ownership of these credentials without compromising users’ privacy. In this work, we construct the first secret-free and quantum-safe credential mechanism. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff working paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets Staff working paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E4, E44, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The aggregate and heterogeneous effects of responding to shelter inflation Staff analytical paper 2026-5 Michael Irwin, Matías Vieyra This note examines how monetary policy responses to shelter inflation affect both the overall economy and different households. We find that the aggregate macroeconomic effects of responding to shelter inflation are modest, whereas the redistributive consequences across households are substantially larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5, G, G5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Public and Private Money Creation for Distributed Ledgers: Stablecoins, Tokenized Deposits, or Central Bank Digital Currencies? Staff working paper 2024-35 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet This paper explores the implications of introducing digital public and private monies (e.g. tokenized central bank digital currency [CBDC] or tokenized deposits) for stablecoins and illicit crypto transactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada Staff analytical note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E44, E5, G, G1, G10, G17, G2, G21, G3, G32, O Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
April 12, 2006 The Evolution of the Government of Canada's Debt Distribution Framework Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2006 Marc Pellerin This overview includes a brief history highlighting the government's use of the primary and secondary markets to develop a framework for distributing its debt securities to financial market intermediaries and end investors. The framework is also intended to meet the government's debt-strategy objectives of raising stable, low-cost funding and maintaining a well-functioning debt market. Pellerin reviews the government's adoption of a new framework in 1998 as well as the 2005 modifications aimed at attracting continued broad and competitive participation in government auctions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles