Global Factors and Inflation in Canada Staff analytical note 2017-17 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update Staff analytical paper 2026-21 Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov, Hannes Twieling We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe Staff working paper 2023-50 Raza Ali Kazmi, Cyrus Minwalla An anonymous credential mechanism is a set of protocols that allows users to obtain credentials from an organization and demonstrate ownership of these credentials without compromising users’ privacy. In this work, we construct the first secret-free and quantum-safe credential mechanism. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O31 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff working paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
December 9, 2010 Central Counterparties and Systemic Risk Financial System Review - December 2010 Eric Tuer, Nicholas Labelle, Nikil Chande Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
December 3, 2009 Improving the Resilience of Core Funding Markets Financial System Review - December 2009 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy Staff working paper 2016-6 Jose Fique To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D85, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Models and tools, Economic models
The Impact of Bankruptcy Reform on Insolvency Choice and Consumer Credit Staff working paper 2016-26 Jason Allen, Kiana Basiri We examine the impact of the 2009 amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act on insolvency decisions. Rule changes steered debtors out of division I proposals and into the more cost-effective division II proposals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, K, K3, K35 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports Staff discussion paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F17 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness