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2173 Results

The Digital Economy—Insight from a Special Survey with IT Service Exporters

Staff discussion paper 2016-21 Wei Dong, James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek
Information technology (IT) is an increasingly integral part of everyday business and personal life reflecting the ongoing and accelerating digital transformation of the economy. In this paper, we present information gathered from a survey with export-oriented firms in the Canadian IT service industry and consultations with industry associations aimed at shedding light on this small but highly dynamic sector.

What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.
October 22, 2006

ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model

The Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, or ToTEM, replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. Benefiting from advances in economic modelling and computer power, ToTEM builds on the strengths of QPM, allowing for optimizing behaviour on the part of firms and households, both in and out of steady state, in a multi-product environment. The authors explain the motivation behind the development of ToTEM, provide an overview of the model and its calibration, and present several simulations to illustrate its key properties, concluding with some indications of how the model is expected to evolve going forward.

A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices

Staff analytical note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger
In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.

Competing Currencies in the Laboratory

Staff working paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang
We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection.

Potential output in Canada: 2026 assessment

Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon.
June 4, 2020

Economic progress report: keeping markets working

Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce Sudbury, Ontario
Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains how efforts to keep financial markets functioning through the COVID-19 crisis will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery

Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018

Staff analytical note 2025-18 Alexander Lam
US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method.

Estimating Discrete Choice Demand Models with Sparse Market-Product Shocks

Staff working paper 2025-10 Zhentong Lu, Kenichi Shimizu
We propose a novel approach to estimating consumer demand for differentiated products. We eliminate the need for instrumental variables by assuming demand shocks are sparse. Our empirical applications reveal strong evidence of sparsity in real-world datasets.
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