Resurrecting the Role of Real Money Balance Effects Staff Working Paper 2009-24 José Dorich I present a structural econometric analysis supporting the hypothesis that money is still relevant for shaping inflation and output dynamics in the United States. In particular, I find that real money balance effects are quantitatively important, although smaller than they used to be in the early postwar period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins Staff Working Paper 2017-47 Heng Chen, Kim Huynh, Oz Shy Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): D, D0, D03, E, E4, E42
Occasionally Binding Constraints in Large Models: A Review of Solution Methods Staff Discussion Paper 2021-5 Jonathan Swarbrick Solving macroeconomic models is difficult. One challenge is the occasionally binding constraint of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. This paper reviews various ways to solve models that include this feature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6
Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies Staff Working Paper 2003-27 Ali Dib The author develops and estimates a quantitative dynamic-optimizing model of a small open economy (SOE) with domestic and import price stickiness and capital-adjustment costs. A monetary policy rule allows the central bank to systematically manage the short-term nominal interest rate in response to deviations of inflation, output, and money growth from their steadystate levels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F2, F3
Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: Using the Least Squares Criterion for Quantile Estimation Staff Working Paper 2014-24 Heng Chen Estimation of the quantile model, especially with a large data set, can be computationally burdensome. This paper proposes using the Gaussian approximation, also known as quantile coupling, to estimate a quantile model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C14, C2, C21
The Rise of Non-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the Housing Sector and its Macroeconomic Implications Staff Working Paper 2017-36 Hélène Desgagnés I examine the impact of non-regulated lenders in the mortgage market using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. My model features two types of financial intermediaries that differ in three ways: (i) only regulated intermediaries face a capital requirement, (ii) non-regulated intermediaries finance themselves by selling securities and cannot accept deposits, and (iii) non-regulated intermediaries face a more elastic demand. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E47, E6, E60, G, G2, G21, G23, G28
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47
Challenges in Implementing Worst-Case Analysis Staff Working Paper 2018-47 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries Worst-case analysis is used among financial regulators in the wake of the recent financial crisis to gauge the tail risk. We provide insight into worst-case analysis and provide guidance on how to estimate it. We derive the bias for the non-parametric heavy-tailed order statistics and contrast it with the semi-parametric extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
Modelling the Evolution of Credit Spreads in the United States Staff Working Paper 2004-45 Stuart Turnbull, Jun Yang The authors use Jarrow and Turnbull's (1995) reduced-form methodology to model the evolution of the term structure of interest rates in the United States for different credit classes and different industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13