October 6, 2016 Economic Trends and Monetary Policy Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Trois-Rivières, Quebec Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins talks about the major trends of the Canadian economy and how they affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Merchant Acceptance of Cash and Credit Cards at the Point of Sale Staff analytical note 2018-1 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Kerry Nield, Angelika Welte Recent data show that the use of credit cards in Canada has been increasing, while the use of cash has been declining. At the same time, only two-thirds of small or medium-sized businesses accept credit cards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C2, D, D1, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
The Digital Economy—Insight from a Special Survey with IT Service Exporters Staff discussion paper 2016-21 Wei Dong, James Fudurich, Lena Suchanek Information technology (IT) is an increasingly integral part of everyday business and personal life reflecting the ongoing and accelerating digital transformation of the economy. In this paper, we present information gathered from a survey with export-oriented firms in the Canadian IT service industry and consultations with industry associations aimed at shedding light on this small but highly dynamic sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts Staff working paper 2025-28 Kevin Moran, Dalibor Stevanovic, Stéphane Surprenant We produce forecasts for four risk scenarios to consider their usefulness for monitoring the Canadian economy. We find a high-oil-price scenario benefits the economy, a US recession induces a slowdown, a tight labor market leads to price increases, and a restrictive monetary policy scenario increases the unemployment rate while lowering the inflation rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
October 22, 2006 ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2006 Paul Fenton, Stephen Murchison The Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, or ToTEM, replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. Benefiting from advances in economic modelling and computer power, ToTEM builds on the strengths of QPM, allowing for optimizing behaviour on the part of firms and households, both in and out of steady state, in a multi-product environment. The authors explain the motivation behind the development of ToTEM, provide an overview of the model and its calibration, and present several simulations to illustrate its key properties, concluding with some indications of how the model is expected to evolve going forward. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Trading on Long-term Information Staff working paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Debt-Relief Programs and Money Left on the Table: Evidence from Canada's Response to COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-13 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Shaoteng Li, Nicolas Vincent During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canadian financial institutions offered debt-relief programs to help borrowers cope with job losses and economic insecurity. We consider the low take-up rates for these programs and suggest that to be effective, such programs must be visible and easy to use. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, H, H5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Competing Currencies in the Laboratory Staff working paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech