Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility: An Update Staff Working Paper 2008-37 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt This paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation-targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Vestin (2006) shows that when the monetary authority cannot commit to future policy, price-level targeting yields higher welfare than inflation targeting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
February 10, 2011 Commodity Prices: The Long and the Short of It Remarks John Murray IPAC-Saskatchewan/Johnson/Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy Regina, Saskatchewan Commodity prices are once again making headlines. Some commodity prices, such as those for copper and cattle, have reached record highs; others are rising quickly and approaching previous peaks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
High-Frequency Cross-Sectional Identification of Military News Shocks Staff Working Paper 2025-27 Francesco Amodeo, Edoardo Briganti We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E30, E32, E6, E60, E62, E65
Commodity-Linked Bonds: A Potential Means for Less-Developed Countries to Raise Foreign Capital Staff Working Paper 2004-20 Joseph Atta-Mensah The author suggests that commodity-linked bonds could provide a potential means for less-developed countries (LDCs) to raise money on the international capital markets, rather than through standard forms of financing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F34, F4, F49, G, G1, G11, G13, O, O1, O16
October 20, 2006 MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2006 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics
June 22, 2011 Emerging from the Shadows: Market-Based Financing in Canada Financial System Review - June 2011 James Chapman, Lawrence L. Schembri, Stéphane Lavoie Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
August 18, 2010 Strengthening International Capital and Liquidity Standards: A Macroeconomic Impact Assessment for Canada G-20 leaders have agreed on comprehensive financial sector reforms to reduce the risk of future crises and to strengthen banking systems. Raising the amount and quality of capital and liquidity that financial institutions must carry is a central component of the reforms. The G-20 is developing a set of proposals for agreement by leaders at […]
Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence : une évaluation empirique Staff Working Paper 1994-10 Mario Lefebvre This paper examines whether the hypothesis of economic convergence holds for the Canadian provinces. Using data on real gross domestic product per capita and on factor productivity from 1966 to 1992, the paper shows, using two different methods, that the convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected. This evidence supports the findings of other authors who have studied convergence among Canadian provinces. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
May 11, 2017 The Life Cycle of Government of Canada Bonds in Core Funding Markets Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor Data on the use of government securities in the repo, securities lending and cash markets suggest there are bond market clienteles in Canada. Shorter-term bonds are more prevalent in the repo market, while longer-maturity securities are more active in the securities lending market—consistent with the preferred habitat hypothesis. These results could help design better debt-management strategies and more-effective policies to maintain well-functioning financial markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23
Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17