Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 23, 2011 Renewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework Remarks Mark Carney Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Governor Mark Carney discusses the key elements of Canada’s inflation-targeting regime. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
May 15, 2014 Double Coincidence of Needs: Pension Funds and Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Pension Investment Association of Canada Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses pension funds and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies Staff working paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures Staff working paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff working paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
June 22, 2011 Financial System Review - June 2011 In this issue of the Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council judges that, although the Canadian financial system is currently on a sound footing, risks to its stability remain elevated and have edged higher since December 2010. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis Staff working paper 2023-32 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander We study the effects of financial frictions on firm exit when firms face large liquidity shocks. We develop a simple model of firm cost-minimization that introduces a financial friction that limits firms’ borrowing capacity to smooth temporary shocks to liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E6, E65, H, H8, H81 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Anticipating changes in bank capital buffer requirements Staff analytical note 2025-27 Josef Schroth Time-varying capital buffer requirements are a powerful tool that allow bank regulators to avoid severe financial stress without the cost of imposing very high levels of capital. However, this tool is only effective if banks understand how it is used. I present a model that banks and financial market participants can use to anticipate how time-varying capital buffer requirements change over time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial system regulation and oversight
February 1, 2012 Transparency in the Canadian Fixed-Income Market: Opportunities and Constraints Financial System Review - December 2003 Tran-Minh Vu Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles