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2134 Results

A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices

Staff analytical note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger
In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component.
June 4, 2020

Economic progress report: keeping markets working

Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce Sudbury, Ontario
Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains how efforts to keep financial markets functioning through the COVID-19 crisis will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery
February 15, 2018

Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability

Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021.

What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Staff working paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.

Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle

Staff working paper 2023-9 Laure Simon
Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle.

Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model.

2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration and Variance Estimation

Technical report No. 114 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Christopher Henry
This technical report describes sampling, weighting and variance estimation for the Bank of Canada’s 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Under quota sampling, a raking ratio method is implemented to generate weights with both post-stratification and nonparametric nonresponse weight adjustments.

Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures

Staff working paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp
We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability.
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