May 15, 2014 Double Coincidence of Needs: Pension Funds and Financial Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Pension Investment Association of Canada Québec, Québec Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses pension funds and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill Staff working paper 2020-46 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J24, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
July 4, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between April 28 and May 13, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have risen, alongside concerns about prices for food, gas and rent. Short-term expectations are at record-high levels. Long-term inflation expectations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2022, returning to the levels they were at before the COVID-19 pandemic. Most people believe the Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target. However, some think the process of bringing inflation down will be difficult for the Bank of Canada. Expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. People expect that credit conditions will worsen and wage growth will not keep up with inflation. Flexible work arrangements could attract more people into the labour force. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies Staff working paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff working paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection Staff working paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries, Laurens de Haan The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff discussion paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Consumer Credit Regulation and Lender Market Power Staff working paper 2024-36 Zachary Bethune, Joaquín Saldain, Eric R. Young We investigate the welfare consequences of consumer credit regulation in a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous lender market power. Lenders post credit offers and borrowers—some informed and others uninformed—apply for credit. We calibrate the model to match characteristics of the unsecured consumer credit market and use the calibrated model to evaluate interest rate ceilings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D4, D43, D6, D60, D8, D83, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending Staff working paper 2023-12 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li, Anna Trubnikova This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Household and business credit
June 22, 2011 Financial System Review - June 2011 In this issue of the Financial System Review, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council judges that, although the Canadian financial system is currently on a sound footing, risks to its stability remain elevated and have edged higher since December 2010. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report