What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment Staff working paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill Staff working paper 2020-46 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J24, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices Staff analytical note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff working paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty Staff working paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
June 4, 2020 Economic progress report: keeping markets working Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce Sudbury, Ontario Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains how efforts to keep financial markets functioning through the COVID-19 crisis will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
December 13, 2010 Living with Low for Long Remarks Mark Carney Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Current turbulence in Europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. In a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff working paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff discussion paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments