July 4, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between April 28 and May 13, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have risen, alongside concerns about prices for food, gas and rent. Short-term expectations are at record-high levels. Long-term inflation expectations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2022, returning to the levels they were at before the COVID-19 pandemic. Most people believe the Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target. However, some think the process of bringing inflation down will be difficult for the Bank of Canada. Expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. People expect that credit conditions will worsen and wage growth will not keep up with inflation. Flexible work arrangements could attract more people into the labour force. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
The increasing role of hedge funds in Government of Canada bond auctions Staff analytical note 2025-22 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We find that the rise in Government of Canada debt issuance correlates to growing participation of hedge funds in bond auctions since 2020. This increased participation supports the cost-effective distribution of Canada’s debt, but it also represents a potential vulnerability because hedge funds have a greater flight risk than other investor types. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
December 23, 2004 A Taxonomy of Market Efficiency Financial System Review - December 2004 Gregory Bauer Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle Staff working paper 2023-9 Laure Simon Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D15, E, E2, E21, E6, E62, J, J1, J11, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 4, 2020 Economic progress report: keeping markets working Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce Sudbury, Ontario Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains how efforts to keep financial markets functioning through the COVID-19 crisis will lay a solid foundation for economic recovery Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices Staff analytical note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
May 9, 2018 Strengthening Our Cyber Defences Remarks Filipe Dinis Payments Canada Toronto, Ontario Chief Operating Office Filipe Dinis outlines how the Bank is strengthening its cyber defenses and helping improve the financial system’s cyber resilience and its ability to recover quickly from attacks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility Staff working paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
December 13, 2010 Living with Low for Long Remarks Mark Carney Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Current turbulence in Europe is a reminder that the crisis is not over, but has merely entered a new phase. In a world awash with debt, repairing the balance sheets of banks, households and countries will take years. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks