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2191 Results

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock

Staff working paper 2021-48 Ingomar Krohn, Philippe Mueller, Paul Whelan
We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.
May 13, 2014

Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Realized and Implied Volatility

Uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s future policy rates is measured using implied volatility computed from interest rate options and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following major policy actions taken by the Bank in response to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Findings also indicate that, on average, uncertainty decreases following the Bank’s policy rate announcements.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity Meets the Zero Lower Bound

Staff working paper 2017-16 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi
We add downward nominal wage rigidity to a standard New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages, where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is allowed to bind. We find that wage rigidity not only reduces the frequency of zero bound episodes but also mitigates the severity of corresponding recessions.

An Economic Perspective on Payments Migration

Staff working paper 2020-24 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu, Gabriel Xerri
Consumers, businesses and banks make millions of payments each day using a variety of instruments, such as debit cards, cheques and wires. Canada is currently developing three new systems to process these transactions: Lynx, Settlement Optimization Engine (SOE) and Real-Time Rail (RTR).

Hedge funds and bond market liquidity dynamics at the onset of the 2026 Middle East conflict

Staff analytical paper 2026-42 Vincent Meh, Jabir Sandhu, Andreas Uthemann
We investigate whether hedge funds contributed to Government of Canada bond market illiquidity at the onset of the Middle East war in early 2026. We find no evidence they did. Hedge funds remained active in primary auctions, while their secondary market trading remained broadly consistent with their usual relative-value strategies.
February 15, 2018

Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability

Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021.
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