Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment Staff Discussion Paper 2018-9 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37, E5, E52
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-26 Min Jae Kim, Jonathan Witmer Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
February 10, 2015 Minding the Labour Gap Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the state of the labour market, the impact of lower oil prices on Canada’s economic outlook and the importance of both for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
Do Firms Adjust Toward a Target Leverage Level? Staff Working Paper 2007-50 Zhaoxia Xu This paper studies capital structure adjustment mechanisms of firms that experience substantial changes in leverage. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32
March 25, 2022 A world of difference: Households, the pandemic and monetary policy Remarks (delivered virtually) Sharon Kozicki Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference San Francisco, California Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how differences among households affect economic outcomes, how shocks can have important uneven effects across households, and why these things matter for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
The Sale of Durable Goods by a Monopolist in a Stochastic Environment Staff Working Paper 1998-18 Gabriel Srour This paper examines the sale of durable goods by a monopolist in a stochastic partil equilibrium setting. It analyzes the responses of prices and output to various types of shocks and notes the differences with non-durable goods and competitive markets. It shows that behavior in this model with constant marginal costs of production is in […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4
April 7, 2009 Price-Level Uncertainty, Price-Level Targeting, and Nominal Debt Contracts Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Allan Crawford, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima Many central banks around the world have embraced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. Interest is growing, however, in price-level targeting as an alternative. The choice of frameworks has important consequences for financial contracts, most of which are not fully indexed to the price level. Changes in the price level therefore lead to changes in the real value of contracts. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
Which Bank is the "Central" Bank? An Application of Markov Theory to the Canadian Large Value Transfer System Staff Working Paper 2008-42 Morten Bech, James Chapman, Rodney J. Garratt We use a method similar to Google's PageRank procedure to rank banks in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Along the way we obtain estimates of the payment processing speeds for the individual banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20
Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties Staff Discussion Paper 2016-18 Nikil Chande, Nicholas Labelle This paper proposes a practical approach to address the procyclicality of initial margin at central counterparties (CCPs) that can work even in periods of extreme stress. The approach allows CCPs to limit the speed of margin increases resulting from spikes in market volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18
Building New Plants or Entering by Acquisition? Estimation of an Entry Model for the U.S. Cement Industry Staff Working Paper 2011-1 Héctor Pérez Saiz In many industries, firms usually have two choices when expanding into new markets: They can either build a new plant (greenfield entry) or they can acquire an existing incumbent. In the U.S. cement industry, the comparative advantage (e.g., TFP or size) of entrants versus incumbents and regulatory entry barriers are important factors that determine the means of expansion. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L4, L40, L6, L61