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2191 Results

Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It

Staff working paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca
This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned.
May 13, 2014

Measuring Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Using Realized and Implied Volatility

Uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Canada’s future policy rates is measured using implied volatility computed from interest rate options and realized volatility computed from intraday prices of interest rate futures. Both volatility measures show that uncertainty decreased following major policy actions taken by the Bank in response to the 2007–09 financial crisis. Findings also indicate that, on average, uncertainty decreases following the Bank’s policy rate announcements.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

Does Outward Foreign Investment Matter for Canadian Productivity? Evidence from Greenfield Investments

Staff working paper 2018-31 Naveen Rai, Lena Suchanek, Maria Bernier
This paper seeks to understand how outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the productivity of Canadian firms. We estimate the impact of outward greenfield investment on measures of firm-level productivity using FDI data from roughly 2,000 Canadian firms and more than 4,000 outward FDI projects over the 2003–14 period.

Considerations for the allocation of non-default losses by financial market infrastructures

Staff analytical note 2022-16 Daniele Costanzo, Radoslav Raykov
Non-default losses of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) have gained attention due to their potential impacts on FMIs and FMI participants, and the lack of a common approach to address them. A key question is, who should absorb these losses?

Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform

Staff working paper 2021-15 Gabriela Galassi
How do firms change their employment decisions when tax benefits for low-earning workers are expanded? Some firms increase employment overall, whereas others replace high-earning workers with low-earning workers, according to German linked employer-employee data.

Relationships in the Interbank Market

Staff working paper 2016-33 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet
In the interbank market, banks will sometimes trade below the central bank's deposit rate. We explain this anomaly using a theory based on market frictions and relationship lending.

Is This Normal? The Cost of Assuming that Derivatives Have Normal Returns

Staff working paper 2024-46 Radoslav Raykov
Derivatives exchanges often determine collateral requirements, which are fundamental to market safety, with dated risk models assuming normal returns. However, derivatives returns are heavy-tailed, which leads to the systematic under-collection of collateral (margin). This paper uses extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the cost of this margin inadequacy to market participants in the event of default.

How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework

Staff analytical note 2018-11 Alexander Ueberfeldt, Thibaut Duprey
Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks.
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